Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved up since releasing this play on Monday morning. Virginia is a Lean at -3.5 to -5.

Strong Opinion – Virginia (-3)  35   Duke  26

Virginia won this matchup 34-17 at Duke just a few weeks ago with the Cavaliers outgaining the Blue Devis 543 yards at 7.1 yards per play to 235 yards at 4.1 yppl. I don’t see it being nearly so lopsided this time but Virginia is clearly the better team.

Duke’s strength is their offense, which has averaged 33.6 points and 6.1 yards per play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack (0.5 yppl better than average). However, the Blue Devils’ defense has been 0.6 yppl worse than average (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense). Duke has managed to outscore those opponents by 3.1 points because they have good special teams and a +8 turnover margin.

Virginia has equally good special teams and the Cavaliers, while only 0.2 yppl better than average on offense, as been 0.7 yppl better than average defensively this season while only giving up more than 21 points on 3 occasions. That defense gave up just 10 points to Duke’s offense 3 weeks ago (Duke has one defensive touchdown). The Blue Devils will likely need to score 30 points to have a chance at covering the spread in this game.

The math model projects Virginia with a 475 yards a 6.6 yards per play to 365 yards at 5.7 yppl advantage in this game and the Cavaliers should be able to win by more than 3 points.

Virginia is a Strong Opinion at -3 -120 odds or better.