Game Analysis

Note: Temple star running back Ryquell Armstead is suddenly listed as OUT for undisclosed reasons, which hurts our play on Temple. Star CB Rock Ya-Sin is also out. But, Duke’s injured linebackers, including star Joe Giles-Harris (and Humpries) are out. The math still favors Temple by 8.3 points after all of those adjustments – although I would have made Temple a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 or less only had all of this injury info been reported earlier.

Best Bet – **Temple (-3 at -115)  30   Duke  22

Rotation #236 – Thursday, 10:30 am Pacific

Temple is 8-1 straight up and 7-2 ATS with Anthony Russo at quarterback and the two spread losses were both close – a 12 point loss as an 11-point dog at UCF in a game that was neck-and-neck the entire was before UCF scored twice late to barely cover and a 10 point win laying 13.5 points to South Florida. Russo has been upgraded to probable for this game after missing the season finale against Connecticut and Owls are reportedly excited to play in this bowl despite losing head coach Geoff Collins to Georgia Tech. Unlike a few years ago when Matt Rhule left, all the assistant coaches have stayed behind to coach the Owls and interim head coach Ed Foley and his players have commented on the positive difference in preparation for this game.

With Russo at quarterback and RB Ryquell Armstead both healthy the Owls offense is 0.4 yards per play better than average, which gives them an advantage over a banged-up Duke defense that is just average even if linebackers Joe Giles-Harris and Ben Humphreys are able to play. Humphreys has barely played since getting injured against Virginia in week 8 (he missed week 9, played hurt in weeks 10 and 11, and tried to play in weeks 12 and 13 and was pulled in both games) and Giles-Harris, a two time All-ACC selection, has missed the last 3 games in which Duke allowed an average of 291 rushing yards at 6.8 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.9 yprp against an average team). However, Duke’s run defense was leaking even before Giles-Harris was injured, as 305-pound defensive tackle Edgar Cerenord was lost for the season starting in week 8 and #2 tackler, SS Dylan Singleton was also lost to a season-ending injury in the first half of the week 11 game against North Carolina. In 3 games after losing Cerenord (weeks 8 through 10) and before losing Giles-Harris and Singleton, the Blue Devils allowed 329 rushing yards per game at 7.4 yprp (to teams that would average 5.9 yprp), so the issues with the run defense appear to have more to do with losing their run-stuffing defensive tackle than it does with losing their linebackers and strong safety since the troubles defending the run started in week 8 after Cerenord was lost.  I will assume that the run defense will be better if Giles-Harris can play in this game but I don’t think it will be better than their season rating of 0.2 yprp worse than average. In fact, it’s likely to be worse than that given that the Blue Devils couldn’t stop the run after Cerenord went down, even with Giles-Harris and Humphries. For now I just used Duke’s season run defense rating for the math on this game and I’d like Temple even more if Giles-Harris can’t play. Giles-Harris has practiced some but is said to be a game-time decision and certainly won’t be 100% if he does play on that injured knee. My guess is that the coaching staff wouldn’t want to risk the future of a player that will play in the NFL if he doesn’t damage that knee any further. But, I like Temple regardless.

The big edge for Temple in this game is their extremely stingy defense against Duke’s below average offense, which is led by extremely overrated quarterback Daniel Jones, who is said to be a possible first-round NFL draft pick despite completing a mediocre 59% of his passes and average only 5.5 yards per pass play (to teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback). If Jones is an NFL talent then his receivers must suck because there is nothing about his below average performance that suggests he’s even good enough to start for an average College team. The Duke rushing attack is average (5.1 yprp against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and overall the Blue Devils’ offense is 0.1 yards per play worse than average with Jones at quarterback (he missed the Baylor game and a game against FCS team NC Central).

Temple’s defense is among the best in the nation defending the pass, as the Owls yielded just 54.8% completions and 4.3 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense. Jones is worse than the average quarterback that Temple has faced and Duke is projected to average only 4.1 yppp in this game. The only 3 FBS quarterbacks to average more than 4.1 yppp against Temple were all well above average quarterbacks (Buffalo’s Jackson averaged 6.1 yppp, UCF’s Milton averaged 9.4 yppp, and Houston’s King averaged 5.9 yppp). The Owls absolutely dominated average or worse quarterbacks this season and I’d be really surprised if Jones averaged more than 5 yards per pass play in this game. The Temple run defense is 0.3 yprp better than average so I don’t expect Duke’s mediocre ground attack to do much damage.

Overall, Duke is projected at just 352 yards at 4.5 yards per play while Temple’s offense is projected to gain 429 yards at 5.8 yppl even if Duke linebackers Giles-Harris and Humphries play at 100% effectiveness. Overall, the math favors Temple by 11 points at the very least (up to 14 points if Giles-Harris and Humphries don’t play) and the math projects 51 to 54 total points depending on the status of Duke’s LB’s. I will play Temple in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -115 odds or better and for 1-Star up to -4 points.

If I find out Giles-Harris is not going to play then Temple would be a 2-Star up to -4 points.