Duke @

No Carolina St.

Sat, Oct 17
FSN
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 119
Odds: No Carolina St. -4.5, Total: 58.5

Game Analysis

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NC STATE (-4.5)  37   Duke  27

NC State has upset Pitt and beat up on Virginia 38-21 since turning to Devin Leary to start at quarterback. Original starter Bailey Hockman was 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average (5.6 yppp against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback) while Leary has been 1.9 yppp better than average in 2 ½ games, averaging 7.2 yppp against 3 good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 5.3 yppp to an average quarterback (factoring in all 3 were road games for NC State). There’s really no variance in Leary’s performance, as his longest completion is for just 37 yards, so I do expect the Wolfpack to continue to be much better than average in the pass game while also running it well with Knight and Person combining for 571 yards at 5.4 ypr thus far. Duke is decent defensively (0.1 yppl better than average) but NC State should move the ball very well through the air.

Duke’s offense has been disappointing, as more was expected of former Clemson backup Chase Brice, who got a lot of snaps for the Tigers last season. Brice has completed just 54% of his passes and averaged only 5.5 yppp, although against teams that would allow just 5.8 yppp to an average QB. The Blue Devils’ rush attack has been a bit better than average and overall the offense has been average in gaining 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. NC State has had two bad defensive games (7.5 yppl allowed to Virginia Tech and Pitt) and two good defensive games (4.3 yppl allowed to Wake Forest and Virginia), so it’s tough to say how they’ll perform here. Overall, the NC State defense has been about average.

NC State has been the better team so far this season and Leary has made their offense better since taking over behind center. I like the Wolfpack and lean over in this one.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Duke
  • No Carolina St.
DUKE
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 35.0 35.0
  • Run Yards 159.0 162.4
  • YPRP 5.2 5.2




Pass





  • Pass Comp 21.2 16.8
  • Pass Att 39.4 30.8
  • Comp % 53.8% 54.5%
  • Pass Yards 263.0 252.8
  • Sacks 4.0 3.6
  • Sack Yards 22.6 21.2
  • Sack % 9.2% 10.5%
  • Pass Plays 43.4 34.4
  • Net Pass Yards 240.4 231.6
  • YPPP 5.5 6.7

Total

  • Total Plays 78.4 69.4
  • Total Yards 422.0 415.2
  • YPPL 5.4 6.0

TO


  • Int 1.8 1.0
  • Int % 4.6% 3.2%
  • Fumbles 2.0 0.6
  • Turnovers 3.8 1.6
 
  • Points 21.6 30.6
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