Game Analysis

Mississippi (-17.5)  34   Duke  16

The Ole Miss offense looked unstoppable early in the season against weaker competition but stumbled at times against better competition. The Rebels were 1.4 yppl better than average against FBS teams this season (7.0 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack)  I still rate the Rebels’ attack at +1.2 yppl better than average if I exclude their games against worse than average defensive teams and adjust for the outlier against Arkansas (9.1 yppl) that skewed their rating up more than their worst performance dragged it down. The likely absence of star WR Tre Harris drops that offense a bit more, although he played in only 4 of the games against better competition. Harris missed 4 of 5 games at the end of the regular season and had just 2 targets in the other. He averaged 12.3 yards on 68 targets against FBS teams while the other wide receivers combined for 10.9 YPT. The absence of RB Henry Parrish is not much of a negative, but I did adjust a bit for the transfer of starting RT Micah Pettus.

The Rebels will be challenged by a very good Duke defense that yielded just 4.9 yppl this season to FBS teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. That unit should be intact for this game, with the exception of a backup cornerback, but despite how good their pass defense was this season (5.1 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average team) the Blue Devils did give up 10.3 yards per pass play to SMU and 9.1 yppp to Miami – so they have been susceptible to elite quarterbacks.

Duke’s offense was sluggish this season, as the Blue Devils averaged only 5.4 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack. Starting quarterback Malik Murphy has transferred and Henry Belin IV will get the start. Belin has one career start, against NC State last season, and he was just 4 for 12 for 107 yards passing (one big play for 69 yards) with a sack and had 4 runs for 31 yards. I’m going to assume that he’s worse than Murphy was with the typical backup vs starter adjustment, which is 2.4 points in this case. Leading rusher Star Thomas has entered the transfer portal, but I haven’t seen any statement from him about playing in this game and he is listed on the depth chart. It doesn’t really matter, as Thomas’ 4.1 ypr is not tough to replace.

The Blue Devils are going to have a tough time moving the ball on an elite Ole Miss defense that yielded just 15.2 points per game and 4.7 yppl (with starters in) to FBS opponents that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense. Leading tackler LB Chris Paul Jr. has opted out to prepare for the NFL combine, which is a big loss, and starting defensive back Jadon Canady is in the transfer portal and I’ll assume he won’t play (no official word though). Canady was second on the team with 11 passes defended, so that’s another significant loss. I value those two defenders as worth 2.1 points with most of that being Paul, who aside from being the leading tackler has 11 total tackles for loss and 5 passes defended, which is good for a linebacker.

After all the adjustments, I get Mississippi by 18.1 points with 50.8 total points. Ole Miss does apply to a negative 12-31 ATS double-digit favorite situation that applies to Alabama, who lost straight up to Michigan, so it’s possible that the Rebels may not be fully focused for this game. I’ll pass.