Duke @

Kansas

Sat, Sep 24
Fox Sports 1
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 361
Odds: Kansas -7.5, Total: 66

Game Analysis

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Lean – Duke (+7.5)  32   KANSAS  34

Kansas is 3-0 and coming off consecutive wins as double-digit road underdogs at West Virginia and Houston. The Jayhawks are certainly much improved in coach Lance Liepold’s second season but they are not going to continue to be as efficient at scoring points in the redzone (6.3 points per redzone opportunity instead of project 5.2 PPRZ) or converting on 3rd-downs on offense (69% so far).

Kansas has a good offense that averaged 6.7 yards per play in those two upset wins (and 10.2 yppl vs Tennessee Tech) but the Jayhawks gave up 947 yards at 6.4 yppl the last two weeks and Duke’s offense is humming. The Blue Devils have averaged 8.0 yppl with starting quarterback Riley Leonard in the game, including 7.8. yppl against a solid Temple defense and 8.1 yppl at Northwestern.

Duke’s offense has been very bit as good as the Kansas offense has been and the Blue Devils have been better defensively, yielding just 4.4 yppl to 3 teams that would combine to average 4.4 yppl against an average defensive team.

Duke has been better than Kansas so far this season but I did have KU rated higher heading into the season and my priors still have significant weight. However, this line shouldn’t be as high as it is as Kansas is not likely to be as fortunate on 3rd downs or redzone opportunities.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Duke
  • Kansas
DUKE
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 32.7 32.0
  • Run Yards 213.7 98.3
  • YPRP 6.5 3.1




Pass





  • Pass Comp 17.7 21.0
  • Pass Att 24.0 37.0
  • Comp % 73.6% 56.8%
  • Pass Yards 255.3 226.3
  • Sacks 1.0 2.3
  • Sack Yards 9.3 11.0
  • Sack % 4.0% 5.9%
  • Pass Plays 25.0 39.3
  • Net Pass Yards 246.0 215.3
  • YPPP 9.8 5.5

Total

  • Total Plays 57.7 71.3
  • Total Yards 459.7 313.7
  • YPPL 8.0 4.4

TO


  • Int 0.7 0.3
  • Int % 2.8% 0.9%
  • Fumbles 0.0 2.0
  • Turnovers 0.7 2.3
 
  • Points 36.7 14.3
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