Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Duke (-21)  35   CONNECTICUT  7

The weather looks bad in Storrs on Saturday with 13 mph winds and rain, but those conditions tend to affect the pass game only and Duke should be able to run the ball for 300 yards at over 7 yards per run while the Huskies will continue to struggle in both facets offensively. The Blue Devils’ ground game has averaged 244 yards per game at 6.6 yards per run and that average has not been inflated by big runs, as their longest run is just 44 yards. Duke has faced 3 teams that are collectively very good defending the run – particularly Clemson and Northwestern, who they ran for an average of 235 yards at 7.2 yprp against. UConn is not terrible defending the run, but they’re not as good as the teams that Duke has easily run against so far this season. The Blue Devils also have a very good quarterback than can move the chains with accurate short passes when needed (Riley Leonard completes 68% of his passes).

Connecticut’s offense would be expected to score more than 7 to 10 points even in perfect weather conditions, as the Huskies have managed just 15 points per game and only 4.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppl to an average offense. UConn has a 71-yard run and they’ve still averaged only 4.4 yards per rushing play (only 3.7 yprp without that one big run) and Duke has a better than average run defense that’s yielded just 4.9 yprp to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average team. The Huskies are projected to run for just 4.1 yprp and to average only 3.4 yppp, as they’ve managed just 4.8 yppp this season (against teams that would allow 7.9 yppp) while Duke’s pass defense has given up just 3.9 yppp, including only 4.3 yppp to Clemson.

Duke should win this game by at least 3 touchdowns if all they do is hand the ball off on every down. I’ll take Duke in a 1-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less (Strong Opinion up to -23).