Connecticut @

UCF

Sat, Nov 20
ESPN+
1:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 331
Odds: UCF -30.5, Total: 56

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Connecticut (+30.5)  14   UCF  38

UCF has been overrated all season (2-7 ATS vs FBS teams) and the Golden Knights have struggled offensively with Mikey Keene at quarterback, averaging just 5.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl in his 7 starts. Connecticut is terrible defending the pass but big favorites tend to run more often and the Huskies defend the run relatively well (4.8 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp). U Conn has allowed an average of 36.8 points to teams that are just 0.1 yppl worse offensively than UCF has been with Keene and my math model projects 38 points for the Knights.

UCF’s defense is 0.2 yppl better than average and UConn has averaged just 15.3 points per game against teams that are collectively 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively. However, the Huskies have been considerably better with Steven Krajewski at quarterback, as he’s been 0.8 yards per pass play better than the team’s overall pass rating (that works out to over 3 points). The math projects 14 points for Connecticut in this game, which should be enough to cover the number against a struggling UCF offense. Connecticut is 3-1 ATS getting 28 points or more this season and hopefully they’ll let Krajewski play the entire game. Jack Zergiotis inexplicably got the start last week and he’s dreadfully bad (2.4 yards per pass play this season). Krajewski has been named the starter this week, however, and I think the young Huskies will play hard in front of their newly names head coach Jim Mora Jr. Connecticut is a Strong Opinion at +30 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Connecticut
  • UCF
CONN
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 28.1 42.5
  • Run Yards 114.8 204.0
  • YPRP 4.1 4.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 16.8 19.7
  • Pass Att 33.0 33.6
  • Comp % 50.9% 58.6%
  • Pass Yards 160.3 248.8
  • Sacks 2.7 0.9
  • Sack Yards 18.2 5.3
  • Sack % 7.6% 2.6%
  • Pass Plays 35.7 34.5
  • Net Pass Yards 142.1 243.5
  • YPPP 4.0 7.1

Total

  • Total Plays 63.8 77.0
  • Total Yards 256.9 447.5
  • YPPL 4.0 5.8

TO


  • Int 1.4 0.9
  • Int % 4.2% 2.7%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.3
  • Turnovers 1.8 1.2
 
  • Points 15.3 36.8
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