Game Analysis

Lean – North Carolina (-2.5)  33   Connecticut  26

Lean – Over (52.5)

Connecticut is not a good team and I would have favored North Carolina by 9.4 points before adjusting for opt outs and transfers that won’t play in this game.

The North Carolina offense ended the regular season rated at 0.5 yards per play better than average and were +0.6 yppl with quarterback Jacolby Criswell at quarterback. Running back Omarion Hampton was the star of the offense with 1660 yards at 5.9 ypr but he opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. I value Hampton, and one starting offensive lineman as worth a combined 3.8 points.

The UConn defense was 0.1 yppl worse than average, as the 5.4 yppl that the Huskies allowed was against a schedule of mostly bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average defense. The Huskies will be without starting DL Gourdine and CB Malcolm Bell, who started 4 games. Those two are worth 1.2 points.

The Connecticut offense was 0.6 yppl worse than average in the regular season but the coaching staff finally wised up and benched horrible quarterback Nick Evers, who was 2.0 yards per pass play worse than average. Joe Fagnano started the last 2 games and was better than Evers throughout the season (on 187 pass plays). His best game was against FCS team Merrimack, who has a horrible defense. I didn’t count that game in my ratings but I still rate Fagnano at just 0.6 yppp worse than average (1.4 yppp better than Evers, who had 190 pass plays against FBS teams). Leading receiver Skyler Bell has entered the transfer portal but he’s listed on the bowl depth chart so I’ll assume that he’ll play. Running back Durell Robinson, who ran for 731 yards and averaged 6.6 ypr against FBS opponents, has transferred and he is not on the depth chart and will not play. The other running backs combined for 5.6 ypr, which equates to a difference of 0.7 points.

North Carolina’s defense was 0.1 yppl worse than average this season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and they’ll be without 4 key starters in DE Rucker (6 sacks), DT Ritzie (tied for team lead in sacks with 6.5), LB Echols (#2 tackler and #2 in passes defended) and FS Lane, who led the team in tackles. I value those 4 players at 4.3 points in this matchup.

After all the adjustments I get UNC by 3.8 points with a total of 59.3 points with -0.7 points for the projected weather (rain but not windy). The Tarheels ended the season with 3 straight losses (0-3 ATS) but that negative run sets them up in a 60-16-4 ATS bowl situation and they also apply to a 67-24-3 ATS bowl situation.

I’ll Lean with North Carolina at -3 or less and I’ll Lean Over 54 points or less.