Connecticut @

Clemson

Sat, Nov 13
ACC Network
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 125
Odds: Clemson -41, Total: 51

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Clemson Team Total Under (46 -115)

Alternate play is Strong Opinion game Under (51)

CLEMSON (-41)  38   Connecticut  6

Clemson has gone over their team total legitimately just one time all season, as they needed fluke defensive TD on the final play to go over against Florida State two weeks ago and even last week’s 30 points against Louisville (their one legit TT over) was bit fortunate given that the Tigers averaged only 5.3 yards per play and accumulated just 347 total yards.

Connecticut is a bad defensive team that’s allowed 6.0 yards per play to opponents that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average FBS defense, but Clemson’s offense would average only 5.2 yppl on a neutral field against an average FBS defense and just 5.1 yppl at home against an average defense without their only productive receiver Joseph Ngata, who is out for a few weeks. Ngata has averaged 19.0 yards per reception and 9.7 yards per pass targeted at him, which is significantly better than the rest of the Clemson wide receivers, who have combined to average only 10.4 ypc and 5.8 yards per target.

So, Clemson at home without Ngata rates the same offensively as the 9 teams that UConn has faced this season and the Huskies have only allowed 36 points per game. Only two of Connecticut’s nine opponents have scored more than 45 points against them and it’s likely that Clemson won’t reach that number today. The Tigers did score 49 points against FCS team South Carolina State, but that defense is 0.4 yppl worse than the Connecticut defense, although they still went under their team total in that game.

Obviously, Clemson could score on defense, which is something they haven’t done all season, and they should have some short fields to work with. However, the strength of their defense is factored into their offensive points prediction of 38 points.

I’ll resist making this a Best Bet given the higher variance in a likely blowout game, but the Clemson Team Total is a Strong Opinion Under 45 points or more. The alternate play, if you don’t have team totals, is a Strong Opinion on the game under 50 or higher.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Connecticut
  • Clemson
CONN
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 29.2 42.6
  • Run Yards 124.4 212.3
  • YPRP 4.3 5.0




Pass





  • Pass Comp 17.0 18.9
  • Pass Att 33.0 31.0
  • Comp % 51.5% 60.9%
  • Pass Yards 165.2 240.1
  • Sacks 2.3 1.0
  • Sack Yards 15.3 5.9
  • Sack % 6.6% 3.1%
  • Pass Plays 35.3 32.0
  • Net Pass Yards 149.9 234.2
  • YPPP 4.2 7.3

Total

  • Total Plays 64.6 74.6
  • Total Yards 274.3 446.6
  • YPPL 4.2 6.0

TO


  • Int 1.3 0.9
  • Int % 4.0% 2.9%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.2
  • Turnovers 1.8 1.1
 
  • Points 16.2 36.0
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