Colorado St. @

Iowa

Sat, Sep 25
Fox Sports 1
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 349
Odds: Iowa -23.5, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – Colorado State Team Total Under (10 -115)

Alternate play is Under (44) at 43 or more

IOWA (-23.5)  32   Colorado State 3

Iowa is right there with Clemson and Georgia as the nation’s best defensive team and the Hawkeyes’ stop unit has scored as many touchdowns (3) as they’ve allowed this season through 3 games. Iowa has yielded just 10.0 points per game and 4.3 yards per play to a trio of mediocre to good offensive teams (Indiana, Iowa State, and Kent State) and I don’t see how Colorado State’s offense is going to reach double digits against that unit.

The Rams have averaged 5.2 yppl and averaged 22 points per game but they’ve faced a mediocre collection of opposing defensive teams and have been 0.6 yppl worse than average after adjusting for that. The CSU attack is even worse off without their only good wide receiver, as Dante Wright is unlikely to play again this week. Wright had 315 out of 466 receiving yards by the wide receiver group last season while averaging 10.2 yards per target (the others averaged only 3.9 YPT) and Wright had 10 catches for 146 yards in the first two games at 8.1 YPT while the other wide receivers have combined for an average of just 34 yards at 4.0 YPT. Without Wright last week the Rams were forced to throw the ball 16 times to TE Trey McBride. McBride was a great weapon with Wright demanding attention on the outside the first two games, as he caught 21 of 26 passes thrown to him for 230 yards (8.8 YPT). However, McBride was double teamed last week and caught only 9 of those 16 targets for just 6.8 YPT. Iowa has a tight end heavy offense, and their defense surely knows how to defend that position. Colorado State averaged only 3.9 yards per pass play without Wright last week against a mediocre Toledo pass defense. McBride will get shut down and the Rams’ receivers and running backs (5.0 YPT combined) have no chance of making a dent in the Iowa pass defense, which has allowed just 5.0 yards per pass play to 3 good quarterbacks.

The only concern is that Iowa will have such a big lead that they pull their defensive starters but that wasn’t an issue in their big wins over Indiana (34-6) and Kent State (30-7) and Iowa’s bad offense (4.6 yppl) doesn’t figure to rack up too many points against Colorado State’s decent defense (just 5.3 yppl and 24 ppg allowed).

I’ll play Colorado State’s Team Total Under 10 up to -120 odds. The alternate play is the game under 43 or higher.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Colorado St.
  • Iowa
CSU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 39.3 29.7
  • Run Yards 185.0 144.7
  • YPRP 4.7 4.9




Pass





  • Pass Comp 21.3 23.3
  • Pass Att 38.3 37.7
  • Comp % 55.6% 61.9%
  • Pass Yards 228.7 244.0
  • Sacks 1.0 3.0
  • Sack Yards 3.3 19.0
  • Sack % 2.5% 7.4%
  • Pass Plays 39.3 40.7
  • Net Pass Yards 225.3 225.0
  • YPPP 5.7 5.5

Total

  • Total Plays 78.7 70.3
  • Total Yards 410.3 369.7
  • YPPL 5.2 5.3

TO


  • Int 0.7 0.0
  • Int % 1.7% 0.0%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.7
  • Turnovers 1.3 0.7
 
  • Points 22.0 24.0
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