Coastal Carolina @

(21) UL Lafayette

Wed, Oct 14
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 169
Odds: UL Lafayette -7.5, Total: 58.5

Game Analysis

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LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-7.5)  32   Coastal Carolina  24

Coastal Carolina has been a positive surprise so far this season thanks to the emergence of freshman quarterback Grayson McCall, who has completed 67% of his passes for 11.2 yards per pass play. It’s unlikely that McCall will continue to average 17.3 yards per completion but the run heavy Coastal Carolina offense should still create more big pass plays than a normal offense. Running the ball has been the issue for the Chanticleers, who have averaged 201 rush yards per game but at just 4.7 yards per rushing play against 3 teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yprp to an average offense. ULL stuffs the run (4.4 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average defense) and they were great against the pass in their first two games (including 3.9 yppp allowed in their upset of Iowa State) before giving up some big pass plays to Georgia Southern’s run-heavy attack – 255 yards allowed on 18 passes, which gives Coastal Carolina a blue-print on how to attack the Ragin’ Cajuns. More likely, however, is that Louisiana fixes the problems they had against Georgia Southern and that Coastal Carolina will move the ball at a below average clip against the first good defense they’ve faced (just 5.1 yards per play projected).

Louisiana-Lafayette’s offense is balanced and efficient (5.6 yprp, 7.4 yppp and 6.5 yppl) and the Ragin’ Cajuns get star back Elijah Mitchell for tonight’s game back (he’s run for 210 yards at 8.8  ypr in 2 games and 6.3 ypr on 409 career runs). Coastal Carolina’s defense has been surprisingly solid thus far in yielding just 5.3 yppl and 22.3 points per game. Holding Kansas and Campbell in check is not that telling but giving up just 6.1 yppl and 23 points to a good Arkansas State offense suggest that the Chanticleers’ defensive improvement could be real rather than variance.

My math favors ULL by 8 points with a total of 55.8 points, taking into account the calm weather expected tonight. No play for me.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Coastal Carolina
  • UL Lafayette
CCAR
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 42.7 32.0
  • Run Yards 197.7 145.0
  • YPRP 4.7 5.2




Pass





  • Pass Comp 14.0 20.3
  • Pass Att 21.3 34.7
  • Comp % 65.6% 58.6%
  • Pass Yards 242.7 226.3
  • Sacks 0.3 3.7
  • Sack Yards 3.7 21.0
  • Sack % 1.5% 9.6%
  • Pass Plays 21.7 38.3
  • Net Pass Yards 239.0 205.3
  • YPPP 11.0 5.4

Total

  • Total Plays 64.3 70.3
  • Total Yards 440.3 371.3
  • YPPL 6.8 5.3

TO


  • Int 0.3 1.3
  • Int % 1.5% 3.8%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.7
  • Turnovers 1.0 2.0
 
  • Points 44.3 22.3
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