Clemson @

Syracuse

Fri, Oct 15
4:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 115
Odds: Syracuse +13.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – Clemson Team Total Under (28.5 -115)

Alternate play is 1-Star game Under (44.5)

Clemson (-13.5)  20   SYRACUSE  14

I’ve done well betting against the Clemson offense, and I see no reason to stop now. The Tigers have averaged just 12.5 points in regulation in their 4 games against FBS opponents and have not topped 19 points in regulation in any of those games. Tonight the Tigers face a good Syracuse defense that’s yielded just 5.2 yards per play to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. Syracuse has allowed an average of just 24 points in those 5 games against teams that rate at 0.5 yppl better than Clemson’s offense has been so far this season.

Coming into this season I had expected Clemson’s offense to be considerably worse than it’s been in recent years. It wasn’t so much losing the NFL’s #1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence as much as it was losing some skill position players that I didn’t think could be easily replaced. All-American RB Travis Etienne certainly has some value as a runner, but it was 588 receiving yards at 9.6 yards per target that was irreplaceable. The other running backs had combined for just 6.2 yards per target the previous two seasons and only 11 total targets at 7.9 YPT so far this season. The other key departures were receivers Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell, who averaged a combined 10.6 yards on 15 targets per game last season. The rest of the wide receivers with 10 or more targets for the season combined for just 7.3 YPT on 120 targets. Getting Justyn Ross back (he missed last season) was expected to help but he’s averaged only 10.0 yards per catch and 6.4 YPT so far this season and doesn’t appear to be his old self.

New starting quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei played well in two starts last season with better weapons around him, but he’s been horrible so far this season – averaging just 4.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Uiagalelei now has 270 career pass plays and he’s averaged just 6.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. That’s a big enough sample size to conclude that this year’s Clemson pass attack is below average and not close to being as good as the recent editions and the rushing attack is mediocre too.

We’re still getting value playing under in Clemson games because the Tigers’ offense was expected to be elite again and the prior, as it’s called, is still a big part of what makes up the line at this point in the season. My prior on Clemson’s offense was well below the market and they’ve been considerably worse than I had expected (mostly because Ross hasn’t been as good as he was in the past).

As in the previous two games in which I played the Clemson team total under, the other options are to play against Clemson and to play the game under, which are both good options. However, the value that my model has on Syracuse plus the points and on the game under are all due to Clemson’s offense being worse than the market projects them to be. The Tigers’ defense has allowed just 11.3 points against FBS competition and no more than 14 points in any game.

The Clemson Team Total Under 28 or more is a 2-Star Best Bet (1-Star Under 27.5 or 27) and the alternate play is 1-Star on the game Under 44 points or more (2-Stars Under 45).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Clemson
  • Syracuse
CLEM
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 30.0 34.6
  • Run Yards 160.6 127.6
  • YPRP 5.4 3.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 17.0 21.4
  • Pass Att 31.0 35.2
  • Comp % 54.8% 60.8%
  • Pass Yards 176.8 203.8
  • Sacks 2.0 2.6
  • Sack Yards 12.6 20.0
  • Sack % 6.1% 6.9%
  • Pass Plays 33.0 37.8
  • Net Pass Yards 164.2 183.8
  • YPPP 5.0 4.9

Total

  • Total Plays 63.0 72.4
  • Total Yards 324.8 311.4
  • YPPL 5.2 4.3

TO


  • Int 0.8 0.8
  • Int % 2.6% 2.3%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.4
  • Turnovers 1.2 1.2
 
  • Points 21.2 12.2
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