Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Clemson Team Total Under (27.5 -110)

Alternate play is game Under (43)

Clemson (-11.5)  21   SOUTH CAROLINA  14

I’ve lost my last few plays on the Clemson team total under, but the Tigers have only played one better than average offensive game all season relative to the game site and level of defense they faced (last week against Wake Forest) and they are legitimately just 2-9 on their team totals (the final play defensive TD against Florida State was a fluke) while averaging just 23.0 points per game in regulation against FBS teams that are collectively just 0.2 yppl better than average defensively. South Carolina is 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense) and the Gamecocks’ defense has allowed more than 20 points only 4 times in 11 games and all of those were against better than average offensive teams Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Missouri – and Missouri only scored 24 on the Gamecocks’ defense (they added a defensive TD).

Clemson’s offense has averaged only 5.1 yppl this season against FBS teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average offense and it’s ridiculous that the market thinks they’re likely to score at the national average of 27 points against a team with a defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average and runs their offense at a slow pace.

The weather conditions (1 mph wind and no rain) add 1.3 points to Clemson’s scoring projection, but I still get just 20.7 points for the Tigers based on the projected box score with weather adjustment and a model based purely on points projects the same. The Clemson Team Total is a 1-Star Best Bet at 27 points or higher. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is the game under 43.