Game Analysis

Lean – Southern Methodist (-2.5)  32   Clemson  25

SMU is 9-0 since Kevin Jennings took over at quarterback but the knock on the Mustangs is that they faced an easy schedule. while running off those 9 wins. However, Clemson didn’t face a tough schedule either (their FBS opponents were about 3 points better than an average FBS team) and the Tigers lost to the 3 best teams that they faced (Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina). SMU’s only loss was in week 3 by 3 points to a good BYU team in a game in which their former starting quarterback had -23 yards on pass plays. With Jennings at quarterback the Mustangs beat two teams in TCU and Louisville that are better than any team that Clemson beat this season, as the best team Clemson beat was a Virginia Tech team that went 6-6 (an ugly 4 point win at Pitt was their next best win).

SMU has been 1.4 yards per play better than average offensively with Jennings at quarterback (+1.7 yppl in the games he started) while Clemson rates at +0.9 yppl on offense while being relatively worse against better defensive teams. Clemson averaged 52.4 points on 7.9 yppl and a +1.7 yppl rating against 5 average or worse defensive teams (App St, NC St, Stanford, Wake Forest, and Virginia) while averaging just 19.2 points on 5.2 yppl (+0.2 yppl rating) in 6 games against better than average defensive teams.

SMU’s defense has been 1.0 yppl better than average this season, yielding just 4.9 yppl to FBS teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense, which is a better rating than a Clemson defense that has been 0.6 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team).

Not only is SMU significantly better on offense than Clemson, but they are also the better defensive team and Clemson has been relatively much worse offensively when facing better defensive teams.