Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Clemson (+5.5)  33   Louisiana State  32

Strong Opinion – Under (69.5)

It appears as if there has been an overreaction to the results of the semifinal games, in which LSU looked unstoppable in their 63-28 win over Oklahoma while Clemson had to come from 16 points down to beat Ohio State. Prior to the semifinals most books had this potential matchup as a pick’em game and now LSU is favored by 5.5 points, which is too big of a swing for one impressive game against a good, but not great, Oklahoma defense that was missing some key starters. LSU has an incredible offense but Clemson’s defense is vastly better than what they faced in the semifinal and Dabo Swinney’s team tends to play their best against better competition due to a defense that is relatively better against better offensive teams. The fact that Clemson got down by 16 points to an elite Ohio State team and still won and covered the spread is pretty damn impressive too and Dabo’s team has been consistently underrated in these big games because the market overreacts to their relatively weak schedule. In fact, Clemson is 14-2 ATS in all post-season games since 2012 (that includes 4-1 ATS in the ACC Championship game) and the Tigers are 9-2 straight up and 10-1 ATS in bowl and playoff games despite being an underdog in 9 of those 11 games (they’ve covered the spread in all 8 as an underdog of more than 2 points).

Clemson Offense vs LSU Defense

Clemson’s offense is better than the 44.2 points per game and 7.4 yards per play, as the Tigers often had their starters in for less than 3 quarters. Overall, the Tigers were 1.6 yards per play better than average offensively (they faced teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) but they are 2.3 yppl better than average using only their stats with the starters in the game and that unit proved that they could perform against a very good defense by averaging 7.0 yards per play against an elite Ohio State defense that is better than the LSU defense that the Tigers will face in this game.

Clemson’s play really improved over the course of the season once quarterback Trevor Lawrence stopped being careless with his passes. Lawrence was intercepted 5 times in the first 3 games and 8 times in the first 7 games but has been nearly perfect over the Tigers’ last 7 games, completing 72% of his passes with 22 touchdown passes and zero interceptions.

LSU’s defense rates at 1.1 yards per play better than average for the season but the Tigers had some injuries early in the season and defensive coordinator has his unit playing their best ball of the season at the right time. LSU was pretty much healthy from week 6 on and played well up until allowing 41 points and 8.5 yards per play to Alabama in week 11 and then allowing 614 yards at 8.6 yppl to Ole’ Miss the next week. I’ll chalk up that bad game against the Rebels as an anomaly brought on by being up big early and perhaps letting down emotionally after their breakthrough win over the Crimson Tide. From that point on the LSU defense has been very impressive and in their last 3 games the Tigers have limited Texas A&M, Georgia, and an historically good Oklahoma offense to a combined 15 points per game and 4.3 yards per play (with starters in). I don’t think that the LSU defense is as good as that 3 game sample but I rate the Tigers’ defense at 1.5 yppl better than average with their current lineup and dampening the affect of their negative outliers. The math projects 472 yards at 6.4 yppl and 31.6 points for Clemson in this game (adjusted for playing perfect dome conditions).

LSU Offense vs Clemson Defense

LSU has been 2.7 yppl better than average with Joe Burrow in the game (8.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and the attack should be a bit better with star RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (6.6 ypr) reportedly at 100% after carrying the ball just twice against Oklahoma before the coaching staff realized that they didn’t need him. LSU was relatively worse against the three best defensive teams that they faced, averaging 6.6 yppl against Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia, who would combine to allow 4.4 yppl to an average attack. The team that had the most success defending Joe Burrow and company was Auburn, who limited Clemson to just 23 points and 6.0 yards per play. Auburn played 7 defensive backs in that game, which they could do because their defensive line was good enough to stop the run without linebackers and get to the quarterback without the help of blitzing. Dabo Swinney and DC Brent Venables have had two weeks to go over film and I’m sure they noticed how well Auburn’s strategy worked. Clemson’s defensive line may once against be the best in the nation and they have the personnel to employ the same strategy that worked so well for Auburn. Whether they do or not is uncertain, but I have a feeling you’ll see 6 or 7 defensive backs more often than usual from Clemson’s defense.

Clemson’s defense didn’t face a truly elite offense until facing Ohio State in their 29-23 semifinal win but they were relatively better against better offensive teams this season. Part of that is a case of their starters playing more snaps against better offensive teams, although the Tigers’ defensive numbers before pulling starters were still a bit better, relatively, against better offensive teams. My math for this game only includes stats accumulated before the backups enter the game and Clemson’s defensive starters have been 2.0 yppl better than average (4.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average defense) and the Tigers allowed an average of just 11.3 points to FBS teams despite their backups getting considerable playing time. Clemson was relatively better defending better quarterbacks this season, as they held the best 3 passing teams that they faced (North Carolina, Louisville and Ohio State) to just 5.2 yards per pass play, which is 3.6 yppp lower than what those teams would average against an average defensive team. Clemson was 3.0 yppp better than average overall, they were better against better passers and held Ohio State to just 5.8 yppp, which is 3.3 yppp lower than an average team would yield to the Buckeyes.

LSU averaged 35.3 points against the three best defenses that they faced and Clemson’s defense is 0.6 yards per play than the average of those 3 teams, so it’s reasonable to assume that the Tigers would score fewer than 35 points in this game and my math projects 430 yards and 6.4 yppl and 31.8 points for LSU.

Conclusion

Before making adjustments, the math model favored Clemson by 1.1 points but I adjusted for LSU’s recent improvement on defense and gave them a 1 point advantage for playing this game close to home in the Superdome in New Orleans. Some might think that the advantage is greater than that, but a lot of the tickets for this game are owned by corporate sponsors and vivid tickets projects that 62% of the fans will be rooting for LSU. If a normal home field, worth 3.4 points, has 90% home fans and 10% visiting fans and a neutral site has a 50-50 split then 62% equates to a 1 point advantage. LSU is 10-4 ATS this season but the Tigers may be a bit overrated after dismantling Oklahoma so easily and Clemson is always underrated. Clemson is not only great in postseason games under Dabo Swinney, but the Tigers are 25-0 straight up and 20-4 ATS with Trevor Lawrence as the starting quarterback against FBS teams and they won last year’s championship game 44-16 as a 5.5-point underdog to Alabama. That was the 6^th consecutive year that the underdog had covered the spread in the National Championship game and I think that trend is likely to continue. Clemson is a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d play the Tigers as a 1-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more (at -110 odds).

I also see this game going under. My math model predicts just 63.4 total points based on the projected statistics, even with the extra 3.2 points for playing in a dome, and a points based model projects 66.7 total points. Clemson’s defense has been relatively better against better offensive teams, which is part of the reason that they are 10-2 Under the total the last 4 seasons when the over/under is 62 points or higher, which are games against good offensive teams. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 69 points or higher.