Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Cincinnati (-6)  33   Virginia Tech  21

A lot of people think that Virginia Tech is going to suddenly play better in this bowl game but I don’t see how a team that is among the worst in the nation defending the run and is without their top two defensive linemen is suddenly going to learn how to stop the run. And, if you can’t stop the run then beating a Cincinnati team that lives on the run offensively (43 runs per game at 5.6 yards per rushing play) and plays great defense (16.9 ppg) is going to be a challenge.

Virginia Tech dismissed their best defensive linemen Trevon Hill after just 3 games and more recently lost DL Houshun Gaines to an injury (in week 11). Hill had 3.5 sacks in just 3 games and Gaines is the only other player on the team with more than 2 sacks (4.5). The Hokies’ defensive line has been dominated all season long and it’s worse now that Gaines is out. Cincinnati is a run-oriented offense and the Bearcats have been very consistent running the ball, as they’ve gained 244 rushing yards or more at 5.3 yprp or more in 7 of their last 8 games with 3 good running backs and a quarterback that was their #2 rusher. Desmond Ridder is a below average passer (6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback), but he won’t need to throw much in this game against a Virginia Tech defense that allowed an average of 230 rushing yards at 6.3 yprp to 11 FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average team. The Hokies were also 0.6 yards per pass play worse than average (6.9 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.3 yppp) and are worse now with nobody to rush the passer now that Gaines is out (just 4 team sacks in 3 games since his injury). My math projects 288 rushing yards at 6.5 yprp and 188 passing yards at 6.6 yppp for the Bearcats in this game.

Virginia Tech’s offense is pretty good, rating at +0.2 yppl for the season (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and +0.4 yppl with current personnel but Cincinnati’s defense has allowed just 16.9 points per game and 4.7 yards per play (to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team) this season. I do rate the Bearcats’ stop unit worse, at 0.9 yppl better than average) with All-Conference linebacker Perry Young out but that’s more than good enough to contain the Hokies, who I project to gain just 339 yards at 5.2 yppl in this game.

Overall the math favors Cincinnati by 13.5 points but Virginia Tech does apply to a 37-16 ATS bowl angle that plays on teams that had to win their final regular season win to qualify for a bowl game. I can understand the motivation in wanting to play hard in a bowl game that you fought to make but Cincinnati has had a chip on their shoulder the entire season and their only losses are to unbeaten UCF and on the road in overtime to Temple. I resisted making the Bearcats a Best Bet but I’ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.