Game Analysis

Lean – UTAH (-10)  36   Cincinnati  21

Cincinnati’s potent offense took a hit with the injury to leading rusher Evan Pryor, who has averaged 7.2 yards per run. The Bearcats are still 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively but Utah’s defense has been 1.0 yppl better than average (adjusted for facing Arizona State’s backup QB).

The Utes could be without starting quarterback Devon Dampier but backup Byrd Ficklin led the offense to 53 points on over 500 yards last week against Colorado. Utah’s offense has been 0.9 yppl better than average for the season (and the same rating last week with Ficklin at QB) and they should move the ball against a mediocre Cincy defense that’s not as good as the 21. 7 points per game they’ve allowed. The Bearcats have given up over 400 yards per game at 5.6 yppl (against teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and they’re not likely to keep the Utes from gaining over 500 yards.

My ratings favor Utah by 12.3 points with Pryor out for Cincy and Utah applies to a 115-47-2 ATS home favorite momentum situation.

Utah is a Lean at -11 points or less.