Game Analysis

Lean – Under (40) – Louisville (-2)  18   Cincinnati  17

Both teams are missing all the key components of their coaching staffs along with numerous key players. I have algorithms that help me adjust for players being out and I’ll assume the issues regarding the coaching is the same on both sides.

Louisville is missing dual-threat quarterback Malik Cunningham, top receiver Tyler Hudson (9.9 yards per target and 56% success rate), RB Tiyon Evans (525 yards at 6.3 ypr) and top CB Kei’Trel Clark.

Cincinnati will be without their top 4 wide receivers and their top 2 tight ends, who collectively accounted for 90% of the team’s receiving yards. Quarterback Ben Bryant is still out with an injury and backup Evan Prator, while a good runner, had terrible passing numbers even with a full receiving corps the last two games. Kicker Ryan Coe has entered the transfer portal and his +0.5 points per game in field goal value and about a point per game in kickoff value will be missed. On the defense, CB Ja’Quan Sheppard, who leads the Bearcats in passes defended, has also transferred out. Cincy will have 1st-Team All-American LB Ivan Pace, who says he’s excited to be playing one more game before moving onto the NFL.

The numerous defections hurt the offenses much more than the defenses and the projected cold temperature with 18 mph winds (with gusts into the high 20s) and 35% chance of rain doesn’t bode well for the offenses either. That weather doesn’t hurt Cincinnati as much, as the Bearcats figure to be running the ball a lot with their decimated receiving corps and a running quarterback going up against a Louisville defense that was good defending the pass but just mediocre against the run. The Bearcats still figure to have a good defense with Pace playing and just one defection among the starters, as that unit was 1.0 yppl better than average this season.

My math favors Louisville by just 0.5 points and only 35.5 total points after accounting for current personnel and the bad weather. I’ll lean Under 40 points or more.