Cincinnati vs

Alabama

at Arlington
Fri, Dec 31
ESPN
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 273
Odds: Alabama -13.5, Total: 57.5

Game Analysis

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Alabama (-13.5)  36   Cincinnati  22

The line on this game is Alabama -13.5/-14 with a total of 57.5 points and my math projects Bama by 13.7 points with a total of 57.5 points. There is absolutely no value in this game according to my math.

Cincinnati has a very good offense that averaged 7.1 yards per play this season against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack but Alabama’s defense, which has been 1.4 yppl better than average, as the advantage in that matchup and I’ve never seen a player with the defensive stats that Will Anderson has. Anderson has 15.5 sacks and his 32.5 total tackles for loss is a college football record. Cincinnati’s Jerome Ford is a big-play back that averaged 6.2 ypr but Alabama doesn’t give up many big plays in the run game and allowed just 3.7 yprp this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average defense). It will be up to quarterback Desmond Ritter (1.3 yppp better than average) to beat an equally good Alabama pass defense (also 1.3 yppp better than average) for Cincy to have a chance to win this game. I project 327 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Bearcats, which takes into account the perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium. There are rumors that they may open the roof to let more fresh air into the building, but the Dallas weather is expected to be calm.

Cincinnati has a very good defense that yielded just 4.3 yppl (with their starters on the field) against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average FBS stop unit and they held a good Notre Dame attack to just 13 points on 4.6 yppl. Alabama, however, has an offense that is 1.4 yppl better than average and is even better when they are forced to throw the ball more, which is likely to be the case in this game. Bama’s rushing attack is mediocre (5.1 yprp against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp) and Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young gets to throw the ball more when the team faced a team that stuffs the run. We saw that against Georgia in the SEC Championship game, in which Young gained 421 yards on 44 pass plays and the Tide ran the ball just 25 times. Alabama is projected to gain just 4.3 yprp and I project 45 pass plays for Young in this game and 496 total yards at 6.3 yppl. Bama’s leading pass-catcher John Metchie is out for this game due to injury but Metchie’s 8.8 yards per target isn’t really that good for this offense and no Metchie means more targets for Jameson Williams, who leads the team in receiving yards and averaged an incredible 13.5 yards per target. I made no adjustment for Metchie being out.

Alabama should control the ball in this game, as they’ve averaged 9 more plays from scrimmage than their opponents this season while Cincy’s big play offense has resulted in the Bearcats having a -9.2 play differential. Alabama has the edge in special teams by 1.4 points, mostly because Cincinnati’s field goal kicking is the worst in the nation (-1.2 points per game) while Bama’s kicker adds 0.6 points per game in field goal value. Overall, the math favors Alabama by 13.7 points with a total of 57.5 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cincinnati
  • Alabama
CIN
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 31.3 37.9
  • Run Yards 192.1 153.1
  • YPRP 6.1 4.0




Pass





  • Pass Comp 18.6 15.8
  • Pass Att 28.2 29.4
  • Comp % 66.0% 53.7%
  • Pass Yards 252.4 167.8
  • Sacks 1.4 2.9
  • Sack Yards 10.3 17.3
  • Sack % 4.7% 8.8%
  • Pass Plays 29.6 32.2
  • Net Pass Yards 242.1 150.5
  • YPPP 8.2 4.7

Total

  • Total Plays 60.9 70.2
  • Total Yards 434.2 303.5
  • YPPL 7.1 4.3

TO


  • Int 0.7 1.4
  • Int % 2.4% 4.7%
  • Fumbles 0.9 1.2
  • Turnovers 1.5 2.5
 
  • Points 39.2 16.1
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