Game Analysis

Lean – Central Michigan  (+3)  19   Wyoming  20

Lean – Under (45)

The big news a couple of days ago was that Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen is healthy enough to play after missing the final 2 ½ games of the regular season. Allen is projected as a first round NFL pick but I pity the team that is stupid enough to take him. Allen is just another version of Christian Hackenburg (Penn State and drafted by the Jets a couple of years ago) or Kyle Boller (completed less than 50% of his passes at Cal and was a first round draft pick), who were guys with a gun for an arm that could throw a ball through a barn door – if they could only hit the barn. I don’t understand why NFL scouts continue to be seduced by strong armed quarterbacks that are inaccurate. It’s like wanting to date the prettiest girl in town even if she’s a gold-digging idiot that can’t carry a conversation and will ultimately take all your money. Allen has completed only 56% of his passes while averaging just 5.0 yards per pass play (against FBS teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback) this season. The draft experts are giving him a pass because Wyoming lost so much talent at the skill positions from last year’s team. Okay. But, Allen completed only 56% of his passes last season too. You cannot coach accuracy. You either have it or you don’t, and some of the greatest quarterbacks ever, who were incredibly accurate in college, were lower round draft picks because they didn’t have a strong arm (Joe Montana and Tom Brady come to mind). I’ll now get off my soap box and analyze how Allen’s inept passing skills affects this game.

As illustrated above, Wyoming has a horrible pass offense (1.8 yppp worse than average) and the Cowboys can’t run the ball either (just 4.2 yards rushing play against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp to an average team). That combination results in an offense that averaged just 279 total yards and 4.6 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average team. I don’t see Allen doing much damage against a good Central Michigan pass defense that yielded just 5.0 yppp this season (to quarterbacks that would average 5.4 yppp against an average team) and is 0.9 yppp better than the average defense that Wyoming faced this season. Josh Allen faced mostly worse than average pass defenses and he was even worse, relatively against better than average pass defenses – averaging just 3.4 yppp against Iowa, 2.2 yppp against Oregon, and 3.5 yppp against Boise. My math projects a dismal 4.2 yppp for Wyoming in this game and it wouldn’t surprise me if it were lower than that given that Central Michigan’s pass defense is only 0.5 yppp worse than those 3 good defensive teams that Allen combined to average just 3.1 yppp against. The Chippewas are 0.4 yard per rushing play worse than average but Wyoming is projected to average only 3.7 yprp in this game and just 286 total yards at 4.2 yards per play.

Wyoming made it to a bowl game because of a very good defense that is great defending the run (4.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yprp) and very good defending the pass (5.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.1 yppp). Central Michigan’s offense is below average for the season (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) but the Chippewas were better from week 6 on when top receiver Corey Willis returned from injury along with star TE Tyler Conklin. From week 6 on the Chippewas were just 0.1 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl), as the rushing attack also got more consistent. Wyoming should still control that attack and I project 339 yards at 4.7 yppl for Central Michigan in this game.

The Chippewas are projected to outgain the Cowboys by 53 yards but Wyoming has an edge in projected turnovers and special teams and this should be a close, low-scoring game. The math does favor Central Michigan by 1 point, with a total of just 39 points, but Central Michigan applies to a very negative 5-40-2 ATS bowl situation that is based on their 5 game spread winning streak. I trust my math more than I trust the bowl situations, so I’ll still lean with Central Michigan at +3 points or more despite the very negative historical situation. As far as the total is concerned, I’m also just going to make that a lean even though the differential between the over/under and the predicted total is 6 points. My model hasn’t done as well picking unders with low totals in the bowl games and I’ll respect that past performance history and just lean under – although Wyoming went over the total just 1 time all season.