Central Mich vs

Tulsa

at Miami FL
Mon, Dec 19
ESPN
11:30 AM Pacific
WatchESPN
Rotation: 213
Odds: Tulsa -13, Total: 69.5

Game Analysis

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Miami Beach Bowl

Monday, December 19 – 11:30 am Pacific

*UNDER (69 ½) – Tulsa (-13 ½)  37   Central Michigan  24

Tulsa’s games averaged 72.9 points this season but the total on this game should not be close to 70 points. Tulsa’s went to overtime 3 times and their average total points in regulation is a couple of points lower at 70.8 per game. However, that was done with an average of 163.1 total plays (in regulation) per game (excluding kneel downs, spikes, and special teams runs or passes) and this game is projected to have just 143.8 total plays from scrimmage. Those 19.3 fewer plays are projected to result in 115 fewer yards and 10.9 fewer points. Central Michigan plays at a very slow pace (2.05 plays per minute of possession) and that will result in about 2 fewer possessions per team than in a normal Tulsa game, in which the Golden Hurricane averaged 2.82 plays per minute and their opponents averaged 2.54 plays per minute in a league with a lot of up-tempo offenses (2.31 plays per minute is average). The total is high because of Tulsa’s high average total points per game, as Central Michigan games averaged just 54.2 points in regulation, but this game isn’t likely to get to Tulsa’s average of 70.8 total points per game (in regulation) with 19 fewer plays against a team with a sub-par offense. There were also 7 defensive touchdowns in Tulsa games this season (5 in C. Mich games), which is higher than normal and added positive variance to their total points per game average.

Tulsa will be able to move the ball, as the Hurricane have been 0.4 yards per play better than average (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) while Central Michigan has been 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively (6.0 yppl against teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and now rates as 0.6 yppl worse than average without All-MAC CB Amari Coleman, who reportedly won’t play and is a game-time decision at best (I’ll assume he doesn’t play). With Coleman out, I project 507 yards at 6.7 yards per play for Tulsa, which is 13 fewer than their average total yards per game in regulation.

Central Michigan isn’t likely to move the ball very well, as the Chippewas have been 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively for the season (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl) and have been 0.5 yppl worse than average without top WR Jessie Kroll, who was lost for the season in week 4. The offense would be even worse if top running back Devon Spalding could not play, as Spalding’s 5.2 ypr against FBS competition is much better than the 3.4 ypr average of the other two backs. Central Michigan ran for just 118 yards total in 2 games without Spalding, at a pathetic 2.5 yards per rushing play. Spalding is listed as questionable but he did play in the team’s regular-season finale and I expect he’ll play in this game.

Tulsa’s defense has been 0.1 yppl worse than average for the season (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense), but that average is skewed upward by their inability to defend the option offense. Tulsa allowed an average of 397.5 rushing yards at 7.6 yards per rushing play to Tulane and Navy, who both run option offenses, and just 4.1 yprp against non-option teams (excluding garbage time yards against their backups), which is more indicative of how they’ll defend Central Michigan’s traditional rushing attack. Taking out those two games against option teams would result in a rating of 0.3 yppl better than average for Tulsa’s defense, a difference of 2 points per game and another reason why there is value on the under. Tulsa is likely to be without DE Jeremy Smith, which affects the pass rush a bit and is worth about ½ a point based on his stats. The math projects a modest 350 yards at just 5.1 yards per play for Central Michigan in this game, which is 28 yards below their average per game in regulation. The Chippewas only averaged 24.5 points per game in regulation against FBS teams and the math projection of 22.4 points is certainly reasonable.

Overall the math favors Tulsa by 15 ½ points and a total of 60 ½ points and a simple compensated points model would project only 65.4 total points. That projection is higher because of the higher than average number of defensive touchdowns in the 24 games these teams played. Even with the higher than normal amount of defensive touchdowns there is no way to justify a total of more than 65 points in this game. I’ll go UNDER (69.5 points) in a 1-Star Best Bet at 68 points or higher (Strong Opinion down to 67 points).

Despite a bit of line value on Tulsa, I have no opinion on the side, as Central Michigan applies to a 33-8 ATS contrary bowl angle that pretty much balances out the bit of line value favoring the Golden Hurricane.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Central Mich
  • Tulsa
CMU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 28.4 33.8
  • Run Yards 110.4 176.9
  • YPRP 4.6 5.5




Pass





  • Pass Comp 21.5 19.0
  • Pass Att 35.6 32.1
  • Comp % 60.3% 59.2%
  • Pass Yards 272.8 226.9
  • Sacks 2.7 1.3
  • Sack Yards 19.6 9.0
  • Sack % 7.1% 3.8%
  • Pass Plays 38.3 33.4
  • Net Pass Yards 253.2 217.9
  • YPPP 6.6 6.5

Total

  • Total Plays 66.6 67.2
  • Total Yards 383.2 403.8
  • YPPL 5.8 6.0

TO


  • Int 1.0 1.0
  • Int % 2.8% 3.1%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.4
  • Turnovers 1.7 1.4
 
  • Points 27.7 28.3
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