Central Mich @

South Alabama

Sat, Sep 23
2:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 395
Odds: South Alabama -16.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Over (47.5) – SOUTH ALABAMA (-16.5)  37   Central Michigan  17

South Alabama has a better than average offense and Central Michigan’s defense has allowed 8.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team. That includes giving up 42 points and 8.3 yppl to FCS team New Hampshire.

South Alabama’s defense is about average despite giving up 8.5 yppl in their opener to Tulane, which I chalk up as an aberration give that the Jaguars were rated better than average defensively prior to the season and have since given up just 24 total point in two games. Central Michigan is not as good offensively as I had projected, but they get starting QB Bert Emmanuel back this week. Emmanuel has 191 rushing yards in two games and has now run for 708 yards in 5 career games with an average of 8.2 yards per run (not including sacks). Emmanuel is not a good passer but overall the Chippewas’ offense rates a bit better when him behind center.

My model sees more points than the market does and I lean Over 48 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Central Mich
  • South Alabama
CMU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 39.3 26.3
  • Run Yards 187.0 151.0
  • YPRP 4.8 5.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 10.3 22.3
  • Pass Att 21.7 37.3
  • Comp % 47.7% 59.8%
  • Pass Yards 145.7 371.3
  • Sacks 3.0 0.7
  • Sack Yards 23.0 4.7
  • Sack % 12.2% 1.8%
  • Pass Plays 24.7 38.0
  • Net Pass Yards 122.7 366.7
  • YPPP 5.0 9.6

Total

  • Total Plays 64.0 64.3
  • Total Yards 309.7 517.7
  • YPPL 4.8 8.0

TO


  • Int 1.0 0.3
  • Int % 4.6% 0.9%
  • Fumbles 0.0 0.3
  • Turnovers 1.0 0.7
 
  • Points 23.0 38.0
Share This