Central Mich @

Penn St.

Sat, Sep 24
BTN
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 331
Odds: Penn St. -28, Total: 63

Game Analysis

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Lean – PENN STATE (-28)  45   Central Michigan  13

Penn State hasn’t had a quality running back the last two seasons, but highly touted freshman Nicholas Singleton is surpassing his high expectations by averaging a ridiculous 11.1 yards per run in his first 3 collegiate games. What is even more impressive is that Singleton would be averaging 7.4 ypr even if you took out his longest run in each game, which includes runs of 70 yards and 54 yards. Central Michigan has a good run defense, but so does Auburn, who gave up 249 rushing yards at 6.7 yards per rushing play in the Nittany Lions’ 41-12 road win last week.

Penn State should move the ball even if Singleton is slowed down, as Penn State has been 1.2 yards per pass play better than average while the Chippewas have allowed 726 pass yards at 8.4 yppp in two games against FBS teams that would combine to average 7.1 yppp against an average defense.

Central Michigan will have trouble staying close with an offense that has been 0.5 yards per play worse than average so far (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and is without their #1 receiver Dallas Dixon, who is out for the year after getting injured in the first half of their week 2 game. Penn State’s defense has been rock solid in yielding just 5.0 yppl to 3 teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense.

The only thing keeping me from making this a play is a potential letdown with this game sandwiched between their win at Auburn and their conference opener next week. However, the math is significantly in favor of the Nittany Lions to win by more than four touchdowns.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Central Mich
  • Penn St.
CMU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 35.3 33.0
  • Run Yards 163.3 124.3
  • YPRP 4.6 3.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 25.0 23.7
  • Pass Att 43.0 39.7
  • Comp % 58.1% 59.7%
  • Pass Yards 297.0 304.3
  • Sacks 1.7 2.0
  • Sack Yards 11.0 16.7
  • Sack % 3.7% 4.8%
  • Pass Plays 44.7 41.7
  • Net Pass Yards 286.0 287.7
  • YPPP 6.4 6.9

Total

  • Total Plays 80.0 74.7
  • Total Yards 449.3 412.0
  • YPPL 5.6 5.5

TO


  • Int 0.7 0.7
  • Int % 1.6% 1.7%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.0
  • Turnovers 1.3 0.7
 
  • Points 36.3 32.0
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