California
@ 
Washington
Game Analysis
Lean – Under (58.5) – WASHINGTON (-20.5) 34 California 17
Cal has a history of good defensive teams under coach Justin Wilcox and this year’s defense has experience and added talent and could be his best. The Bears have allowed just 17.3 points per game and have been 0.9 yards per pass play better than average defensively – including holding Auburn to 227 yards and 14 points on 4.4 yppl.
Washington may have the best defense in the nation but using this year’s games only would project a modest 407 total yards for the Huskies against the stingy Bears. Cal will try to dominate the clock, which they’ve done well (33.7 minutes of possession per game) with a good rushing attack (260 rush yards per game at 5.8 yards per rushing play) going up against a mediocre Washington run defense that’s allowed only 4.3 yprp but has faced teams that would combine to average only 4.4 yprp against an average defense. Cal should have enough success running the ball to limit Washington’s possessions and keep this game relatively close – and low scoring.
Underdogs are now 47-21-1 ATS in Cal games under coach Wilcox, including 27-11-1 ATS when the Bears are an underdog. Cal lost just 21-28 to a potent Washington team last season with the worst defense they’ve had under Wilcox and I lean Under 58 points or more in this game. I’d also lean with Cal if the line goes back up to +21 or more.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- California
- Washington
Rush
- Run Plays 45.0 26.3
- Run Yards 260.3 111.7
- YPRP 5.8 4.2
Pass
- Pass Comp 20.3 17.7
- Pass Att 33.3 29.7
- Comp % 61.0% 59.6%
- Pass Yards 195.3 185.3
- Sacks 1.3 2.0
- Sack Yards 12.0 13.0
- Sack % 3.8% 6.3%
- Pass Plays 34.7 31.7
- Net Pass Yards 183.3 172.3
- YPPP 5.3 5.4
Total
- Total Plays 79.7 58.0
- Total Yards 443.7 284.0
- YPPL 5.6 4.9
TO
- Int 0.7 1.7
- Int % 2.0% 5.6%
- Fumbles 0.7 1.7
- Turnovers 1.3 3.3
- Points 33.0 17.3