Game Analysis

Nevada-Las Vegas (-2)  25   California  20

Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza entered the transfer portal and is not with the team. That would have been fine if former North Texas and ULM star QB Chandler Rogers were healthy enough to play but Rogers was injured against SMU and former Ohio University backup CJ Harris and inexperienced freshman EJ Caminong are getting most of the reps in practice. There is no definitive word on Rogers’ status but I’m going to assume he won’t play. Harris averaged just 5.2 yards on 150 meaningful pass plays at Ohio and tallied 70 yards on 12 pass plays against SMU in relief of Rogers, but he is a good runner (6.6 yards per rushing play). Mendoza averaged 7.2 yards on his 47 runs this season but Harris would add more to the run game because he runs the ball more often. The wildcard is Caminong, who has more talent than Harris or Rogers but has no collegiate experience. Head coach Justin Wilcox has stated that he’s not afraid of having his freshman play in this game and there is a chance that he could start and be better than Harris or Rogers would be.

A certain blow to the Cal offense is the absence of top WR Nyziah Hunter, who is transferring and won’t play in this game. Hunter led the team in receiving yards and his 9.8 yards per target is much better than the other wide receivers, who combined for 6.7 YPT. I do expect to see more balls thrown to star TE Jack Endries, who caught 49 of 54 balls targeted at him for an average of 10.4 YPT. The running backs are also good receivers, as Ott and Thomas combined for 33 catches and 7.8 YPT, which is very good for running backs. I project Hunter to be worth 0.3 yards per pass play, which would amount to about a full point given that the Bears are likely to throw less than they did in the regular season – particularly if Harris starts at quarterback.

Cal only averaged 5.6 yards per play this season while facing teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average offense and UNLV’s defense, with all starters expected to play in this game (CB Grimes is in the transfer portal but has stated that he will play), was 0.5 yppl better than average this season (5.3 ypp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense). Cal’s offense is certainly worse without Hunter, and they should be worse at quarterback without Mendoza.

UNLV’s offense was 0.6 yppl better than average in their last 10 games with Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl) but the Rebels are at a slight disadvantage against a Cal stop unit that’s been 0.8 yppl better than average this season while defending the run and the pass equally well. There was a concern about NFL caliber WR Ricky White opting out to prepare for the NFL combine but there’s been no word about that being the case, so I’ll assume he’ll play in an effort to boost his draft status.

My math would have favored UNLV by 3.7 points with Mendoza at quarterback for Cal and they will likely be worse unless Caminong starts and plays up to his talent rating. Both teams have new play-callers as Cal’s OC was fired and UNLV’s head coach and OC have left the program, so I’ll assume that’s a wash. I’m going to assume that Cal will run the ball more, as Harris is a running quarterback and the staff would likely also choose to run more if they give Caminong the nod to play.

This game is being played in a closed stadium, which adds to scoring, but UNLV played 5 of their 12 games against FBS teams in a dome in Vegas, so the impact of the dome isn’t as significant as it would be if both teams played their home games outdoors. I also factored in a slower pace of play for Cal based on the Bears likely running the ball more. They played at a much slower pace without Mendoza against SMU (about 7 total plays slower) but I only dropped the total plays projection by 3.0 (before adding more for playing in a dome, which generally leads to more passing).

The math favors UNLV by 4.9 points if I assume Cal’s quarterback is 50% Harris and 50% Caminong and I get 44.9 total points after adjusting for the perfect conditions.