Game Analysis

California (-1)  18   Texas Christian  17

Rotation #233 – Wednesday, 6 pm Pacific

The total on this game (38.5) is the lowest bowl total since 2006 when Georgia and Virginia Tech went over 38 points in a 31-24 game. The total is low because this game features two really good defensive teams and two offenses that have had trouble scoring. Cal games averaged just 44 total points this season despite 11 defensive touchdowns being scored in the Bears’ 12 games. Cal also had a kick return TD and their offensive unit only averaged 19.3 points per game while the defense allowed just 17.8 points per game if you exclude the 6 touchdowns that were scored while their offense was on the field. The Bears rate at 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively with quarterback Chase Garbers in the game and the Bears’ stop unit ranks 7^th in the nation in compensated yards per play (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team).

TCU games, meanwhile, have averaged a combined 47.9 total points, which really low considering that the Horned Frogs play in the high-scoring Big 12 Conference. TCU’s opponents combine to average 62.5 total points per game, and their games were 14.6 points lower scoring than that. TCU actually moves the ball at a decent rate (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and 3^rd string quarterback Grayson Muehlstein has performed a bit better in the last two games since taking over than #1 and #2 quarterbacks Shawn Robinson and Mike Collins did, Muehlstein completed 28 of 43 passes (65%) and averaged 6.6 yards per pass play with compensated numbers slightly higher than the team average but TCU’s offense is still average at best and those short passes that Muehlstein throws aren’t likely to do much damage against a sure tackling Cal team. TCU’s defense also ranks near the top of my rankings, as the Horned Frogs allowed just 5.2 yppl despite facing teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average team, and that unit should have no trouble limiting Cal’s impotent attack.

The math model projects just 35 total points and favors Cal by 0.4 points, with the edge being in special teams. Going under low totals is risky and my model assumes an average likelihood of a defensive touchdown being scored. But, Cal games featured 11 defensive touchdowns in 12 games and TCU’s games had 5 defensive touchdowns, which is also more than average. Even with that being the case it’s still unlikely that there will be a defensive touchdown, but having one would certainly make the under less likely. I’ll pass on this game.