Game Analysis

Note: This play was released before it was revealed that BYU QB Kedon Slovis would sit out. JC transfer Jake Retzlaff is expected to start and the line has moved a couple of points higher and I’ve adjusted 1.7 points. I’ve adjusted the line constraints to a 1-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.

2-Star Best Bet – **West Virginia (-10)  33   Brigham Young  13

BYU has a decent defense and is good on special teams. That’s about all the good I can say about the overrated Cougars, who have been extremely lucky to have been outscored by just 0.7 points per game despite being outgained by 92 yards per game and 0.75 yards per play.

BYU managed to win at Arkansas despite being outgained by 138 yards (out played by 11.4 points from the line of scrimmage) and they beat Cincinnati (sadly) despite being outgained by 243 total yards (-19.2 points from the line of scrimmage) and they beat Texas Tech despite being outgained by 125 yards and being outplayed from the line of scrimmage by 8.2 points in that game. At some point their luck is going to run out, as they were +7 in turnover margin in those 3 undeserved wins. What we have is a 5-3 team that should be 2-6 and that has supplied us with solid line value going against the Cougars.

BYU has a terrible offense that has managed just 285 total yards per game at 4.6 yppl in 7 games against FBS competition that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack. West Virginia’s defense rated at 0.5 yppl better than average and they should be hungry to play well against giving up 76 points in their last two games to very good offensive teams Oklahoma State and UCF. The Mountaineers have faced just one bad defensive team this season and they held Pitt to just 6 points on 211 yards at 3.8 yppl. My math model is calling for just 249 total yards at 4.4 yppl for the Cougars in this game.

BYU does have a decent defense that rates at 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense – adjusted for facing the Texas backup QB last week and facing backup quarterbacks against TCU and Texas Tech). West Virginia’s offense may be underrated due to how bad they were against Pitt and Texas Tech without starting quarterback Garrett Greene. Greene’s backup averaged only 3.5 yards per pass play in those two games (and only 4.7 yppp against a horrible Duquesne defense), which dragged down West Virginia’s overall offensive rating. However, Greene has been good, rating at 1.8 yards per pass play better than average while adding 78 rush yards per game at 6.4 yards per run. West Virginia was 0.9 yppl better offensively in their opening loss to Penn State (4.9 yppl against a Lions’ defensed that would allow just 4.0 yppl at home to an average offense) and the Mounties have averaged 34.5 points in 4 games since Greene returned from his injury while averaging 6.3 yppl or more in each of the last 3 games against Houston, Oklahoma State and UCF, who collectively are better than average defensively. I project 448 total yards at 6.6 yppl for West Virginia in this game.

The Mounties should win this game easily unless BYU is lucky with turnovers again. West Virginia is a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 or less and 1-Star to -13.