BYU @

Baylor

Sat, Oct 16
ESPN Networks
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 169
Odds: Baylor -5, Total: 52

Game Analysis

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BAYLOR (-5)  31   Brigham Young  20

I was on Baylor as a Best Bet last week in their 45-20 win over West Virginia and the Bears are still underrated. Baylor has outgained their FBS opponents 6.7 yards per play to 4.9 yppl while facing a schedule of teams that is 0.3 yppl better than average. BYU is a good team, as they rate at 0.6 yppl better than average offensively with Jaren Hall at quarterback and the Cougars’ defense has been 0.5 yppl better than average.

Baylor’s offense (1.3 yppl better than average) is projected to average 6.5 yppl in this game and their ability to run the ball (5.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp) is an advantage in what is expected to be windy conditions. BYU has faced two strong running teams this season (Utah and Arizona State) and the Cougars gave up an average of 7.2 yprp in those games.

BYU’s offense is expected to run for just 4.6 yprp so they’ll need to depend more on having success throwing in the wind and Baylor’s pass defense (0.9 yards per pass play better than average) is a bit better than Jaren Hall, who has been 0.8 yppp better than average. BYU is projected at just 5.2 yppl against the Bears’ stout defense and Baylor should be able to win this game by 7 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • BYU
  • Baylor
BYU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 32.0 34.0
  • Run Yards 179.7 150.5
  • YPRP 5.6 4.4




Pass





  • Pass Comp 19.5 22.2
  • Pass Att 29.8 34.0
  • Comp % 65.4% 65.2%
  • Pass Yards 241.3 238.2
  • Sacks 1.0 2.2
  • Sack Yards 6.0 15.7
  • Sack % 3.2% 6.0%
  • Pass Plays 30.8 36.2
  • Net Pass Yards 235.3 222.5
  • YPPP 7.6 6.2

Total

  • Total Plays 62.8 70.2
  • Total Yards 415.0 373.0
  • YPPL 6.6 5.3

TO


  • Int 0.5 1.0
  • Int % 1.7% 2.9%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.7
  • Turnovers 1.2 1.7
 
  • Points 27.2 20.5
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