Buffalo vs

Troy

at Mobile
Sat, Dec 22
ESPN
4:00 PM Pacific
WatchESPN
Rotation: 225
Odds: Troy +1, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Buffalo (-1)  26   Troy  24

Dollar General Bowl – Saturday, 4 pm Pacific

My math model favors Buffalo by 1.3 points with a total of 50.1 points, so there is no value in this game. With that being the case I’ll keep my analysis relatively short.

Buffalo is led by veteran quarterback Tyree Jackson but the star of the team is future NFL WR Anthony Johnson, who averaged 18.2 yards per catch with 11 touchdowns and 11.2 yards per pass targeted at him. Johnson missed nearly two full games and the pass attack was worse than average without him but I rate the Bulls’ offense at 0.2 yards per play better than average with Johnson healthy and Jaret Patterson (946 yards at 5.6 ypr) as the main ball-carrier (he averaged just 5 runs per game over the first 5 games and 18 runs over the final 8 games).

Troy’s strength is a defense that allowed just 22.5 points per game and 5.1 yards per play and rates at 0.3 yppl better than average after compensating for opposing offenses faced. The Trojans’ run defense is very good (0.7 yprp better than average) but the pass defense is a bit worse than average and Buffalo should have good success through the air in very calm conditions that they aren’t used to playing in Buffalo. I project 399 yards at 5.7 yppl for the Bulls in this game.

Troy’s offense was 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season but an injury to highly accurate quarterback Kaleb Barker (73% completions and a 1.6% interception rate) has hurt the Trojans’ attack. Sawyer Smith has actually played more than Barker did and his compensated passing (6.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback) is only 0.2 yppp worse than the team’s season average. However, Barker also added 357 rushing yards at 8.1 yards per run and Smith is not nearly as nimble (4.9 yprp) and losing Barker actually had a bigger affect on the rushing numbers. Overall, Troy is 0.6 yppl worse than average with Smith at quarterback and he’s also more interception prone (6 picks on 186 passes, 3.2%).

Buffalo’s defense allowed just 25.9 points and 5.3 yppl but the Bulls faced a mostly easy schedule of opposing offensive units that would combine to average only 5.0 yppl against an average team. However, that unit still has an advantage over the Troy offense and the Trojans are projected at just 326 yards at 5.4 yppl in this game.

Troy’s advantage in this game is their excellent special teams against Buffalo’s worse than average special teams units but overall the math still favors Buffalo by 1.3 points. I’ll pass on this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Buffalo
  • Troy
BUF
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 40.3 35.5
  • Run Yards 203.4 162.7
  • YPRP 5.2 5.0




Pass





  • Pass Comp 15.8 14.8
  • Pass Att 29.4 28.3
  • Comp % 53.8% 52.3%
  • Pass Yards 226.5 190.0
  • Sacks 1.2 2.8
  • Sack Yards 7.3 15.1
  • Sack % 3.8% 8.8%
  • Pass Plays 30.6 31.1
  • Net Pass Yards 219.2 174.9
  • YPPP 7.2 5.6

Total

  • Total Plays 70.9 66.6
  • Total Yards 429.9 352.7
  • YPPL 6.1 5.3

TO


  • Int 1.0 1.1
  • Int % 3.4% 3.8%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.3 1.6
 
  • Points 34.8 24.7
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