Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Liberty (+4)  26   Buffalo  24

The math would have favored Liberty by 7.7 points at the end of the regular season, but the Flames have been hit by defections – most notably veteran starting quarterback Kaidon Salter, who has committed to Colorado. Buffalo is intact aside from their kicker, who made 14 of 15 field goals inside of 50 years (0-1 at 50+) and transferred to Texas Tech (worth 0.6 points).

The Liberty offense wasn’t nearly as good as expected, as Salter had a horrible season throwing the football, averaging just 5.9 yards per pass play in 10 games against FBS teams that would combine to allow 7.3 yppp to an average quarterback. That shouldn’t be hard to replace (I’ll adjust 0.5 yppp) but Salter’s running (661 yards on 86 runs, not including sacks) will be tough to replace. Leading rusher Quinton Cooley (1144 yards at 6.1 ypr in 10 games against FBS teams) hurts a bit too, but backups Lucas and Blue combined for 778 rush yards at 5.9 ypr against FBS competition. Reaching that average is not likely with two starters out along the offensive line and overall offense projects to be 0.7 yppl worse than they were in the regular season (now -0.9 yppl), which equates to 5.3 points.

The Flames should still move the ball at a decent level as the Buffalo defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense). The Bulls defend the run at a decent level (just 0.2 yprp worse than average) but Liberty QB Ryan Berger (formerly Appalachian State’s backup) should post decent numbers in the pass game, as Buffalo gave up 6.7 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.4 yppp against an average defense.

Buffalo’s offense was also horrible, as the Bulls averaged only 5.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppl to an average FBS attack. Liberty was just 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively in the regular season but the Flames will be missing some pieces from that unit. The team’s second leading tackler LB Jerome Jolly is not with the team but he’s nothing special (55 tackles, 4.5 TFL). The defense is also without DT Nairne (7 starts and just 1.5 total TFL), injured starting safety Green (only 32 tackles with no TFL and only 2 passes defended) and backup NB Bodnar, who played just 5 games before getting injured. Most of Liberty’s best defensive players are playing in this game and I would rate Jolly (not playing) as the 5th most important defender. My algorithm still projects the Liberty defense to be 0.3 yppl worse without the missing players (2.2 points), which puts that unit at 0.7 yppl worse than average for this game, which is 0.4 yppl better than Buffalo’s offense.

Buffalo is a horrible team that was outgained by 62 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play despite facing a schedule of teams that was 12.2 points worse than an average FBS team from the line of scrimmage. Overall, the Bulls were 17 points worse than an average FBS team from the line of scrimmage this season (but were lucky in turnovers) and even with Liberty’s losses they should not be favored by 3 points or more in this game. In addition to the line value (my math model favors Liberty by 0.5 points even after adjusting 7.8 points for their absent players; and 0.6 points for Buffalo not having their accurate FG kicker). Liberty also applies to my best bowl situation, an 81-16-1 ATS situation that is 4-1 this year.

Liberty is a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.