Game Analysis

Buffalo (-6.5)  29   Charlotte  22

Friday, December 20 – 11 am Pacific

The key factor in this game could be the weather, as steady winds of 25 mph or more are expected with a chance of rain. Those conditions tend to significantly affect the passing numbers and in this case favor a Buffalo team that prefers to run the ball 70% of the time and should do so with success in this game. Charlotte, meanwhile, will need to depend more on their aerial attack, which should be challenging when the winds are gusting into the 40s.

Buffalo has two thousand-yard rushers, with Jeret Paterson (1626 yards at 5.8 ypr) and Kevin Marks (1008 yards at 4.7 ypr) and the Bulls’ bruising rushing attack is projected to average 6.4 yards per rushing play in this game against a soft Charlotte defensive front that gave up 6.0 yprp to FBS opponents that would combine to average just 4.8 yprp against an average defensive team. Quarterback Kyle Vantrease was 0.8 yards per pass play worse than average but he’s facing a 49ers’ secondary that is 1.6 yppp worse than average (allowing 6.9 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.3 yppp against an average defensive team). Vantrease won’t need to throw often but he should have decent success when he does throw. I project 405 total yards at 6.4 yppl for Buffalo even with the heavy wind factored in.

Charlotte made it to their first bowl game ever because of their offense. Quarterback Chris Reynolds blossomed this season with the help of big-play receiver Victor Tucker (17.4 ypc), as he averaged 8.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB). The 49ers also have a solid ground attack, which churned out 214 yards per game at 5.5 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp). Buffalo defends the run very well (4.3 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average defense) and the Bulls are decent against the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.8 yppp against an average team), which is a lot better than most of the teams that Charlotte has faced this season. My math projects only 314 yards at 5.6 yards per play for the 49ers in this game.

Overall, the math favors Buffalo by 7.5 points with a total of 50.5 total points, so the total has been adjusted properly for the bad weather. I suggest passing on this game as my math doesn’t see enough of an edge and the weather makes things more variable than normal.