Bowling Green @

Northern Ill

Sat, Oct 16
ESPN+
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 123
Odds: Northern Ill -9, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Bowling Green (+9)  23   NORTHERN ILLINOIS  24

Bowling Green played horribly in a shocking loss to lowly Akron last week but the Falcons had covered the spread in each of their 5 games prior to last week and I expect them to bounce back today against a Northern Illinois team coming off an upset win over Toledo in which they were outplayed 5.0 yards per play to 7.0 yppl.

NIU has now been outplayed from the line of scrimmage 5.5 yppl to 6.5 yppl allowed while facing a schedule of teams that is collectively 0.4 yppl worse than average. The Huskies’ sub-par offensively (0.3 yppl worse than average) will be without star running back Harrison Waylee, who has averaged 115 rushing yards at 5.7 ypr this season. Bowling Green has been great defensively, allowing just 4.8 yppl to 6 teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense and last week was the first time that the Falcons allowed more than 5.4 yppl all season.

Bowling Green’s offense is an issue, as that unit has been 1.5 yppl worse than average, but NIU’s defense is 1.1 yppl worse than average so the Falcons should move the ball at a decent rate.

Overall, Bowling Green has been 1.1 yppl worse than average from the line of scrimmage while Northern Illinois is 1.4 yppl worse than average (-1.6 yppl without Waylee). I do project Northern Illinois to outgain the Falcons 327 yards to 303 yards because they’re likely to run more plays, but that’s a narrow edge and Bowling Green is better in special teams, which matters more in low scoring games. I’ll take Bowling Green in a 1-Star Best Bet at +7.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +7).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bowling Green
  • Northern Ill
BG
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 23.8 42.5
  • Run Yards 86.2 202.3
  • YPRP 3.6 4.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 23.2 15.7
  • Pass Att 35.8 27.3
  • Comp % 64.7% 57.3%
  • Pass Yards 234.2 165.7
  • Sacks 3.3 2.7
  • Sack Yards 25.8 18.2
  • Sack % 8.5% 8.9%
  • Pass Plays 39.2 30.0
  • Net Pass Yards 208.3 147.5
  • YPPP 5.3 4.9

Total

  • Total Plays 63.0 72.5
  • Total Yards 294.5 349.8
  • YPPL 4.7 4.8

TO


  • Int 1.2 1.0
  • Int % 3.3% 3.7%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.7
  • Turnovers 2.0 1.7
 
  • Points 17.7 23.7
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