Boston College @

(23) Virginia Tech

Sat, Oct 17
ACC Network
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 111
Odds: Virginia Tech -13, Total: 64.5

Game Analysis

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VIRGINIA TECH (-13)  34   Boston College  26

The total on this game opened at 57.5 points and has moved up to 64.5 points. Perhaps Virginia Tech finally starting Hendon Hooker at quarterback prompted the move, but while the passing numbers should improve it’s not likely that running back Khalil Herbert will continue to average 10.4 yards per run (449 yards on 43 carries) and the 19.3 yards per run by WR Tre Turner is also likely to regress down towards 10 ypr. So, while Hooker will improve the pass attack it is highly likely that the Hokies will not continue to average 319 rushing yards at 7.3 yards per rushing play. BC has a better than average defense (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team) but I project an impressive 6.8 yppl for Virginia Tech’s offense in this game.

Boston College can’t run the ball (3.4 yprp) and Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec has been inconsistent, although 0.3 yard per pass play better than average overall. Virginia Tech’s defense played well the first two games, even with a number of defenders out against Duke in week 5 (allowed just 5.3 yppl those first two games) but the Hokies were ripped apart by North Carolina’s potent attack, allowing 665 total yards at 10.4 yppl, including 412 ground yards at 10.3 yards per rushing play. I rate Virginia Tech’s defense at 0.2 yppl better than average despite last week’s horrible performance and the Hokies are projected to limit BC to a modest 5.7 yppl.

Both teams run their offense at a slower than average pace so they’ll have to be more efficient than I project to get to 65 points, even with perfect scoring conditions that are worth about 3 extra points. My math favors Virginia Tech by only 8.6 points and projects 60.4 total points. I’ll lean with BC plus the points and Under.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Boston College
  • Virginia Tech
BC
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 27.8 33.5
  • Run Yards 60.3 141.8
  • YPRP 3.4 5.0




Pass





  • Pass Comp 24.8 20.3
  • Pass Att 38.0 36.3
  • Comp % 65.1% 55.9%
  • Pass Yards 295.3 234.3
  • Sacks 4.3 3.0
  • Sack Yards 34.3 24.3
  • Sack % 10.1% 7.6%
  • Pass Plays 42.3 39.3
  • Net Pass Yards 261.0 210.0
  • YPPP 6.2 5.4

Total

  • Total Plays 70.0 72.8
  • Total Yards 355.5 376.0
  • YPPL 5.1 5.2

TO


  • Int 0.5 1.3
  • Int % 1.3% 3.4%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.8
  • Turnovers 0.8 2.0
 
  • Points 25.8 20.8
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