Game Analysis

Lean – VIRGINIA (-1)  28   Boston College  23

Boston College survived a week of horrible quarterback play by Grayson James (just 4.9 yards per pass play against a bad W. Kentucky pass defense) with a 21-20 win, and Thomas Castellanos will be back behind center this week. Castellanos is having a good season, rating at 0.5 yards per pass play better than an average quarterback in his 3 games against FBS teams with just 2 interceptions, but the Eagles’ ground game is mediocre (4.9 yard per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and overall BC’s offense has been just 0.3 yppl better than average in 3 games against FBS teams with Castellanos at quarterback (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team).

Virginia’s defense has been 0.1 yppl better than average defensively in their 3 FBS games (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl), so the Eagles only have a slight advantage when they have the ball.

The Cavaliers’ offense and the Boston College defense rate the same, as Virginia has been 0.5 yppl better than average offensively (6.2 yppl against 3 FBS teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average offense) while the Eagles’ defense has also been 0.5 yppl better than average (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl).

Overall, Virginia has a slight edge in projected yards per play because they’re at home and the Cavaliers are also expected to run more plays from scrimmage than Boston College, who has a -8.8 average play differential.

I think UVA should be favored by 3 points in this game and the Cavaliers apply to a 102-37-2 ATS home team off a win and a bye situation. I’ll Lean with Virginia at -1.