Game Analysis

Note: The line on this game has moved up to -25.5, which is out of range for a play.

1-Star Best Bet – *LOUISVILLE (-24)  41   Boston College  9

Boston College is a bad team that has been getting worse (5 straight spread losses) and I don’t see them competing in this game against a Louisville team riding high after last week’s win at Miami-Florida.

The Eagles have been 10 points worse than an average FBS team so far this season and they’ve been 20 points worse than average in their last 3 games. A change of quarterback to Grayson James didn’t help a struggling offense (-0.6 yards per play rating for the season), as BC was 1.2 yppl worse than average against UConn with James at quarterback last week (5.1 yppl against a horrible Connecticut defense that would allow 6.3 yppl on the road to an average FBS team). James and the Eagles’ offense will struggle against a very strong Louisville defense that’s been 1.2 yppl better than average this season – yielding just 4.6 yppl to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. BC has faced two better than average defensive teams and scored an average of just 8.5 points against Pitt and Clemson on just 3.7 yppl. My math is projecting just 3.8 yppl for the Eagles in this game.

The Boston College defense has also been bad, as that unit has given up an average of 37.8 points and 6.5 yppl to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense. Louisville hasn’t been as good offensively this season as I projected (just 0.3 yppl better than average so far), but they’re better than what BC has faced on average and given up 38 ppg to. The Cardinal have faced just two worse than average defensive teams this season and they scored 51 points and 40 points in those games against Eastern Kentucky and Bowling Green, whose average defensive rating is the same as BC’s defensive rating.

Boston College has faced two good teams this season and lost 7-48 at Pitt and 10-41 at home vs Clemson – neither of which is better than Louisville. You might think that Louisville is in a letdown spot following their upset win at Miami but conference home favorites of more than 14 points are 55-22-1 ATS following a win as a road underdog of more than 7 points and Louisville also applies to a 102-34-3 ATS big home favorite situation.

Louisville is a 1-Star Best Bet at -25 or less.