Game Analysis

Note: This game has been canceled.

Lean – East Carolina (+3)  28   Boston College  27

There’s not much difference between these teams and I think the only reason that Boston College is favored by a field goal is because the market thinks that the Eagles offense is significantly better with Phil Jurkovec at quarterback, which I don’t think is the case.

Jurkovec was only 0.1 yards per pass play in 2020 (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) and this season’s 7.5 yppp against FBS teams were against teams that would combine to allow 7.0 yppp to an average QB and was skewed by averaging 15.5 yppp in one game against Georgia Tech. The 17.0 yards per completion by Jurkovec in 5 starts against FBS teams this season is not sustainable (his average in 257 completions with BC is 13.4 ypc) and his 50.0% completions against FBS teams this season is not good. In fairness, Jurkovec rarely had the services of star TE Trae Berry, who was banged up late in the regular season when Jurkovec returned but is healthy for this bowl game. Barry averaged 10.1 yards per target, so he’ll certainly help the pass attack. However, I still have the Eagles’ pass attack rated at 0.1 yppp worse than average (-0.4 yppp for the season) and the Eagles’ rush attack is 0.1 yprp worse than average. I project BC’s slightly worse than average offense to gain 389 yards at 6.4 yards per play against an East Carolina defense that’s 0.7 yppl worse than average.

The East Carolina offense tends to control the ball (32.9 minutes of possession per game) and they averaged 428 yards per game at 5.7 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl). The Pirates’ mediocre offense should move the ball just fine against a mediocre Boston College defense that’s allowed 5.7 yppl against FBS teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit. I project 410 yards at 5.9 yppl for ECU.

These teams are very evenly matched from the line of scrimmage and ECU has a 0.7 points advantage in special teams, which is how much the math favors the Pirates overall. I’ll lean with East Carolina at +3 at -115 odds or better.