Boise St. @

UTEP

Fri, Sep 23
CBS Sports Network
6:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 311
Odds: UTEP +16, Total: 45.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – UNDER (45) – Boise State (-16)  26   UTEP   13

UTEP quarterback Gavin Hardison averaged 9.0 yards per pass attempt last season, which masked his low completion percentage (55.5%). All Hardison had to do last season was throw the ball up to 4th-Team All-American Jacob Cowing, which he did 113 times for 1354 yards (12.0 yards per target). Cowing is now in Arizona helping to revive the Wildcats’ offense and Hardison is completing just 48.8% of his passes in 4 games while averaging 12.5 yards per completion instead of the 16.3 ypc that he averaged with Cowing to throw to. UTEP still can’t run the ball (4.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp to an average team) and Hardison is 1.6 yards per pass play worse than average. I don’t expect the Miners’ attack (1.1 yards per play worse than average) to do much against a good Boise State defense that’s yielded just 4.5 yppl to three teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. The Broncos shut down sub-par offensive teams New Mexico and Tennessee-Martin, holdin them to an average of just 141 total yards at 10.5 points. I don’t see UTEP getting more than 14 points, which is their 4-game average.

What is supplying the value towards the under in this game is how overrated the Boise State offense is. Boise doesn’t have any big play receivers and veteran quarterback Hank Bachmeier is averaging just 5.6 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average quarterback. The Broncos can’t run the ball either, as they’ve managed just 4.1 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp to an average team). Backup quarterback Taylen Green ran for 111 yard on 10 scrambles in week 1 (74 on one run), so the Broncos are even worse running the ball than their season numbers indicate (the top 2 running backs combine for just 3.6 ypr).

UTEP is 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively but Boise State’s offense has been 1.4 yppl worse than average and the most total yards they’ve gained this season was the 344 yards at 4.9 yppl against FCS Tennessee-Martin, who would allow 7.3 yppl to an average FBS team.

The weather will be calm, and I’ve added 2.2 points for those good scoring conditions, but I still see value in the under. I’ll lean Under 45 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Boise St.
  • UTEP
BOIS
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 35.0 25.0
  • Run Yards 143.7 96.7
  • YPRP 4.1 3.9




Pass





  • Pass Comp 19.0 13.3
  • Pass Att 29.3 26.7
  • Comp % 64.8% 50.0%
  • Pass Yards 186.3 165.0
  • Sacks 2.3 2.3
  • Sack Yards 15.3 16.7
  • Sack % 7.4% 8.0%
  • Pass Plays 31.7 29.0
  • Net Pass Yards 171.0 148.3
  • YPPP 5.4 5.1

Total

  • Total Plays 66.7 54.0
  • Total Yards 314.7 245.0
  • YPPL 4.7 4.5

TO


  • Int 1.3 0.7
  • Int % 4.5% 2.5%
  • Fumbles 1.0 0.7
  • Turnovers 2.3 1.3
 
  • Points 26.0 18.3
Share This