Game Analysis

Oregon (-7)  34   Boise State  26

Oregon is a different team with Justin Herbert back at quarterback after missing nearly 6 games. In fact, I think the Ducks could have been the best team in the Pac-12 if Herbert was healthy the entire season. Herbert’s compensated yards per pass play is 9.4 yppp (he averaged 9.4 yppp against FBS teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback and 6.3 yppp is the national average), which ranks second only to Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield. The other Oregon QB’s have a compensated 2.8 YPPP. Oregon’s offense has been incredible in the 6-plus games with Herbert – averaging 52 points – but in 5 games without Herbert the Ducks manages just 54 TOTAL points (10.8 per game). It’s the biggest difference due to one player I have ever seen in all my years of handicapping. Royce Freeman, Oregon’s leading rusher decided to skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft process, but I don’t see the Ducks’ rushing attack (272 yards per game at 5.8 yards per rushing play) missing a beat given that Oregon’s 3 backup running backs have combined for 1101 yards on 180 runs against FBS opponents (6.1 ypr), which is a bit better than Freeman’s 6.0 ypr average in those games. With Herbert, Oregon has one of the most potent offenses in the nation and my math model projects 473 total yards at 6.7 yards per play for the Quack Attack against a good Boise State defense that is 0.6 yards per play better than average (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team).

Something that was overlooked about Oregon this season is their strong defense. The Ducks yielded just 5.2 yppl to a schedule of FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl and that unit has an advantage over a Boise State offense that is just 0.3 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl). Oregon actually has a better defense than Boise State does and the Ducks are projected to limit the Broncos to 341 yards at 5.1 yppl in this game.

Overall the math favors Oregon by 11 ½ points in this game and I’ve had the Ducks as Best Bets in the two games since Herbert came back (48-28 over Arizona and 69-10 over Oregon State). However, Boise State applies to a 72-18-2 ATS Bowl game situation that plays on pre-New Year’s bowl dogs of 7 points or more. Oregon, meanwhile applies to a 2-23 ATS bowl situation. That big dog situation has a lot to do with these big favorites in early bowl games not being that excited to be playing in a minor bowl game but I don’t see that being the case for Oregon, as the Ducks appear to have a chip on their shoulder and want to continue to prove what a great team they really are now that they have their quarterback back in action. Oregon players are also really supportive of new head coach Mario Cristobal (70 players signed a petition supporting Cristobal as the next head coach that was given to the athletic director), so I expect the Ducks to play hard in this game. Still, I have a tough time going against such a historically strong situations and I’ll pass on this game – although I chose Oregon in my pool.