Baylor @

Iowa St.

Sat, Sep 24
ESPN Networks
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 313
Odds: Iowa St. -2.5, Total: 45.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – IOWA STATE (-2.5)  25   Baylor  17

Baylor’s offense is overrated with Blake Shapen at quarterback. Shapen played in 3 games late last season, starting two of them, and managed just 5.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) and this season he’s managed just 6.3 yppp despite facing teams that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Shapen’s only game against a defense that isn’t horrible (i.e. Albany and Texas State) was a disaster, as Baylor averaged only 3.7 yards per play against BYU with Shapen averaging just 3.6 yppp. Iowa State has a strong defense that defends the run and the pass well (only 9 ppg allowed and 0.7 yards per play better than average in their first 3 games) and I don’t see Baylor having much success offensively in this game.

Baylor’s defense has the exact same rating as the ISU defense so far this year but the Cyclones are much better offensively, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average FBS attack.

Iowa State, with a much better offense and equally good defense, looks like the better team to me.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Baylor
  • Iowa St.
BAY
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 40.7 30.0
  • Run Yards 241.0 97.7
  • YPRP 5.9 3.3




Pass





  • Pass Comp 19.0 20.3
  • Pass Att 27.7 35.3
  • Comp % 68.7% 57.5%
  • Pass Yards 219.7 207.0
  • Sacks 2.0 2.0
  • Sack Yards 9.3 13.0
  • Sack % 6.7% 5.4%
  • Pass Plays 29.7 37.3
  • Net Pass Yards 210.3 194.0
  • YPPP 7.1 5.2

Total

  • Total Plays 70.3 67.3
  • Total Yards 451.3 291.7
  • YPPL 6.4 4.3

TO


  • Int 0.3 0.0
  • Int % 1.2% 0.0%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.7
  • Turnovers 1.0 0.7
 
  • Points 43.7 14.3
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