Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – TOLEDO (-27 -115)  39   Ball State  6

Toledo has a dominating defense (particularly by MAC standards) that allowed just 4.0 yards per play and 14.9 points per game to FBS opponents and rates as the 12th best in nation (1.2 yppl better than average) and Ball State has the nation’s second worst offense that averages just 4.5 yppl (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team).

Ball State hasn’t faced a defense as good as Toledo’s, but they scored just 3 points against Auburn and scored just 7 points total in 3 games against the 3 mediocre to better than average defenses that they’ve faced (0 points vs Purdue, 0 points vs Western Michigan and 7 points vs Northern Illinois). Ball State is very likely to score 7 points or fewer in this game.

Toledo’s offense has been 0.2 yppl better than average ( 6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl) and what seems like an inconsistent unit (5 games with 24 points or fewer and 5 games with 42 points or more) is actually very consistent – consistently bad on the road (4.9 yppl and 16.6 points per game) and consistently great at home (7.5 yppl and 47.4 ppg). Ball State has been 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so the Rockets’ offense should perform well on their home turf again.

Toledo’s home-road dichotomy is likely almost all random, but my math model favors Toledo by 33.4 points in this game weighing all games against FBS teams evenly and it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Rockets have scored 42 points or more in all 5 of their home games.

Toledo is a Strong Opinion at -28 or less.