Game Analysis
Buffalo (-13.5) 38 Ball State 30
Buffalo has one of the best running backs in the nation, as Jaret Patterson has 1025 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns in just 5 games. However, Buffalo ran for just 5.1 yards per rushing play in two games against teams with decent run defenses (Northern Illinois and Miami-Ohio) and Ball State has allowed just 4.6 yprp in their 6 games (against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average defense). I still project Buffalo to run the ball well and quarterback Kyle Vantrease should be very efficient against a sub-par Cardinals’ pass defense but Ball State should be able to stay close.
The Cardinals are averaging 33.7 points and 6.0 yppl (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average FBS offense) and they’ll be facing a Buffalo defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.8 yppl against an average defense), which is a bit worse than what Ball State’s offense has faced on average this season. I project 430 yards at 6.1 yppl for the Cardinals, which should be enough to stay competitive given how good their run defense is (by MAC standards).
Rush
-
Run Plays
40.3
36.0
-
Run Yards
181.5
147.8
-
YPRP
5.0
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.0
23.2
-
Pass Att
33.2
34.7
-
Comp %
66.3%
66.8%
-
Pass Yards
279.0
284.2
-
Sacks
3.3
2.3
-
Sack Yards
20.2
17.5
-
Sack %
9.1%
6.3%
-
Pass Plays
36.5
37.0
-
Net Pass Yards
258.8
266.7
-
YPPP
7.1
7.2
Total
-
Total Plays
76.8
73.0
-
Total Yards
460.5
432.0
-
YPPL
6.0
5.9
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.8
-
Int %
2.5%
2.4%
-
Fumbles
0.2
1.0
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
45.0
37.0
-
Run Yards
338.6
161.0
-
YPRP
7.5
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
10.4
16.0
-
Pass Att
17.4
29.6
-
Comp %
59.8%
54.1%
-
Pass Yards
161.4
214.2
-
Sacks
0.0
2.4
-
Sack Yards
0.0
14.8
-
Sack %
0.0%
7.5%
-
Pass Plays
17.4
32.0
-
Net Pass Yards
161.4
199.4
-
YPPP
9.3
6.2
Total
-
Total Plays
62.4
69.0
-
Total Yards
500.0
375.2
-
YPPL
8.0
5.4
TO
-
Int
0.2
1.0
-
Int %
1.1%
3.4%
-
Fumbles
0.2
0.8
-
Turnovers
0.4
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
11/04/20 @ Miami Ohio |
31-38 |
-1.0
L
|
33/38 |
194/158 |
5.9/4.2 |
0/1 |
19/21 |
32/32 |
284/257 |
1/0 |
5/4 |
7.7/7.1 |
478/415 |
6.8/5.6 |
11/11/20 Eastern Mich |
38-31 |
-8.5
L
|
49/41 |
324/233 |
6.6/5.7 |
1/1 |
22/17 |
31/29 |
212/250 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
6.2/8.6 |
536/483 |
6.5/6.9 |
11/18/20 Northern Ill |
31-25 |
-15.0
L
|
39/30 |
226/131 |
5.8/4.4 |
0/0 |
17/27 |
25/40 |
193/281 |
1/1 |
3/2 |
6.9/6.7 |
419/412 |
6.3/5.7 |
11/28/20 @ Toledo |
27-24 |
+10.0
W
|
44/24 |
160/70 |
3.6/2.9 |
0/1 |
26/30 |
35/40 |
291/382 |
1/1 |
3/4 |
7.7/8.7 |
451/452 |
5.5/6.6 |
12/05/20 @ Central Mich |
45-20 |
-2.0
W
|
46/32 |
181/135 |
3.9/4.2 |
0/2 |
26/20 |
43/30 |
343/157 |
1/2 |
4/4 |
7.3/4.6 |
524/292 |
5.6/4.4 |
12/12/20 Western Mich |
30-27 |
0.0
W
|
31/51 |
125/265 |
4.0/5.2 |
0/1 |
22/24 |
33/37 |
230/273 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
6.6/7.4 |
355/538 |
5.4/6.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
11/04/20 @ Northern Ill |
49-30 |
-14.5
W
|
33/44 |
182/177 |
5.5/4.0 |
1/4 |
11/19 |
17/33 |
175/230 |
1/1 |
0/3 |
10.3/6.4 |
357/407 |
7.1/5.1 |
11/10/20 Miami Ohio |
42-10 |
-7.5
W
|
43/31 |
205/139 |
4.8/4.5 |
0/0 |
17/8 |
27/26 |
313/119 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
11.6/4.6 |
518/258 |
7.4/4.5 |
11/17/20 @ Bowling Green |
42-17 |
-31.5
L
|
47/40 |
397/207 |
8.4/5.2 |
0/0 |
7/17 |
12/27 |
74/192 |
0/1 |
0/4 |
6.2/6.2 |
471/399 |
8.0/5.6 |
11/28/20 Kent State |
70-41 |
-10.0
W
|
53/44 |
516/242 |
9.7/5.5 |
0/0 |
11/24 |
21/35 |
148/366 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
7.0/10.2 |
664/608 |
9.0/7.6 |
12/12/20 Akron |
56-7 |
-33.0
W
|
49/26 |
393/114 |
8.0/4.4 |
0/0 |
6/12 |
10/27 |
97/90 |
0/1 |
0/4 |
9.7/2.9 |
490/204 |
8.3/3.6 |