Game Analysis
Auburn (-19.5) 35 ARKANSAS 20
Auburn has had an extra week off to try to get over their first loss of the season, at Florida, but the 5-1 Tigers still might not have been fully focused on 2-4 Arkansas. Conference road favorites of more than 7 points with a winning record are just 39-85-1 ATS after a bye week when visiting a losing team that is coming off a loss (6-20 ATS if the road favorite is also off a loss).
My math model also likes Arkansas to cover the inflated line and hopefully the Razorbacks’ coaching staff sticks with Nick Starkel as the starter over Ben Hicks (Starkell is 0.7 yards per pass play better).
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.8
31.8
-
Run Yards
170.2
140.0
-
YPRP
5.0
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.6
19.7
-
Pass Att
30.0
33.5
-
Comp %
58.8%
58.8%
-
Pass Yards
228.2
223.0
-
Sacks
1.7
2.7
-
Sack Yards
13.1
18.5
-
Sack %
5.3%
7.5%
-
Pass Plays
31.6
36.3
-
Net Pass Yards
215.1
204.5
-
YPPP
6.8
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
68.4
68.1
-
Total Yards
398.4
363.0
-
YPPL
5.8
5.3
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.8
-
Int %
1.5%
2.4%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.2
39.0
-
Run Yards
152.5
204.1
-
YPRP
5.2
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.8
16.3
-
Pass Att
33.1
25.6
-
Comp %
56.9%
63.6%
-
Pass Yards
205.9
239.5
-
Sacks
2.1
2.3
-
Sack Yards
15.2
14.3
-
Sack %
6.0%
8.1%
-
Pass Plays
35.2
27.8
-
Net Pass Yards
190.7
225.2
-
YPPP
5.4
8.1
Total
-
Total Plays
67.3
66.8
-
Total Yards
358.3
443.5
-
YPPL
5.3
6.6
TO
-
Int
1.2
0.5
-
Int %
3.5%
1.8%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.7
-
Turnovers
2.0
1.2
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/29/18 Southern Miss |
24-13 |
-28.0
L
|
33/18 |
122/61 |
3.7/3.4 |
1/1 |
19/30 |
33/44 |
219/203 |
0/2 |
3/2 |
6.1/4.4 |
341/264 |
4.9/4.1 |
| 10/06/18 @ Mississippi St. |
9-23 |
-3.5
L
|
18/56 |
115/353 |
6.4/6.3 |
2/0 |
19/9 |
38/17 |
187/69 |
0/1 |
3/0 |
4.6/4.1 |
302/422 |
5.1/5.8 |
| 10/13/18 Tennessee |
24-30 |
-16.5
L
|
31/32 |
157/88 |
5.1/2.8 |
1/0 |
28/21 |
45/32 |
300/310 |
2/0 |
2/3 |
6.4/8.9 |
457/398 |
5.9/5.9 |
| 10/20/18 @ Mississippi |
31-16 |
-4.0
W
|
45/34 |
274/157 |
6.1/4.6 |
0/0 |
13/27 |
22/46 |
210/290 |
0/0 |
1/5 |
9.1/5.7 |
484/447 |
7.1/5.3 |
| 11/03/18 Texas A&M |
28-24 |
-3.5
W
|
18/42 |
37/228 |
2.1/5.4 |
0/1 |
19/16 |
30/32 |
241/187 |
0/1 |
3/5 |
7.3/5.1 |
278/415 |
5.5/5.3 |
| 11/10/18 @ Georgia |
10-27 |
+12.5
L
|
20/42 |
102/329 |
5.1/7.8 |
0/0 |
25/15 |
37/22 |
172/193 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
4.6/8.0 |
274/522 |
4.8/7.9 |
| 11/17/18 Liberty |
53-0 |
-28.0
W
|
58/25 |
360/72 |
6.2/2.9 |
0/2 |
14/9 |
21/28 |
195/63 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
8.9/2.0 |
555/135 |
6.9/2.4 |
| 11/24/18 @ Alabama |
21-52 |
+24.5
L
|
40/25 |
147/133 |
3.7/5.3 |
0/0 |
15/26 |
32/33 |
136/367 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
3.9/10.8 |
283/500 |
3.8/8.5 |
| 12/28/18 Purdue |
63-14 |
-3.5
W
|
49/24 |
158/103 |
3.2/4.3 |
0/0 |
16/22 |
23/38 |
378/160 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
16.4/3.9 |
536/263 |
7.4/4.0 |
| 08/31/19 @ Oregon |
27-21 |
-3.5
W
|
41/29 |
217/122 |
5.3/4.2 |
0/1 |
13/28 |
31/37 |
169/220 |
2/0 |
1/3 |
5.3/5.5 |
386/342 |
5.3/5.0 |
| 09/07/19 Tulane |
24-6 |
-17.0
W
|
44/30 |
174/125 |
4.0/4.2 |
2/0 |
19/10 |
37/34 |
207/103 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
5.6/3.0 |
381/228 |
4.7/3.6 |
| 09/14/19 Kent State |
55-16 |
-35.5
W
|
60/27 |
486/112 |
8.1/4.1 |
0/0 |
13/18 |
17/36 |
147/209 |
0/0 |
2/5 |
7.7/5.1 |
633/321 |
8.0/4.7 |
| 09/21/19 @ Texas A&M |
28-20 |
+4.0
W
|
40/18 |
200/72 |
5.0/4.0 |
0/1 |
13/31 |
21/49 |
101/319 |
0/0 |
1/3 |
4.6/6.1 |
301/391 |
4.9/5.6 |
| 09/28/19 Mississippi St. |
56-23 |
-9.5
W
|
41/35 |
226/159 |
5.5/4.5 |
3/2 |
18/11 |
24/26 |
345/135 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
13.3/4.8 |
571/294 |
8.5/4.7 |
| 10/05/19 @ Florida |
13-24 |
-3.0
L
|
32/29 |
152/166 |
4.8/5.7 |
1/4 |
11/25 |
27/39 |
117/238 |
3/0 |
2/4 |
4.0/5.5 |
269/404 |
4.4/5.6 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/06/18 Alabama |
31-65 |
+35.0
W
|
30/40 |
176/249 |
5.9/6.2 |
2/0 |
26/14 |
40/18 |
229/393 |
1/0 |
1/0 |
5.6/21.8 |
405/642 |
5.7/11.1 |
| 10/13/18 Mississippi |
33-37 |
+6.5
W
|
46/34 |
305/239 |
6.6/7.0 |
0/0 |
15/26 |
22/35 |
178/374 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
7.7/9.8 |
483/613 |
7.0/8.5 |
| 10/20/18 Tulsa |
23-0 |
-7.0
W
|
50/33 |
211/174 |
4.2/5.3 |
1/1 |
11/8 |
19/25 |
131/92 |
1/1 |
0/6 |
6.9/3.0 |
342/266 |
5.0/4.2 |
| 10/27/18 Vanderbilt |
31-45 |
+1.0
L
|
27/45 |
215/276 |
8.0/6.1 |
0/0 |
23/13 |
36/19 |
200/168 |
2/0 |
2/3 |
5.3/7.6 |
415/444 |
6.4/6.6 |
| 11/10/18 LSU |
17-24 |
+12.5
W
|
16/46 |
41/185 |
2.6/4.0 |
1/1 |
19/15 |
39/21 |
175/179 |
1/0 |
3/2 |
4.2/7.8 |
216/364 |
3.7/5.3 |
| 11/17/18 @ Mississippi St. |
6-52 |
+22.5
L
|
30/47 |
124/287 |
4.1/6.1 |
2/1 |
19/12 |
34/18 |
149/188 |
1/0 |
4/0 |
3.9/10.4 |
273/475 |
4.0/7.3 |
| 11/23/18 @ Missouri |
0-38 |
+23.0
L
|
34/42 |
122/181 |
3.6/4.3 |
1/1 |
10/17 |
25/27 |
91/239 |
1/0 |
5/0 |
3.0/8.9 |
213/420 |
3.3/6.1 |
| 08/31/19 Portland State |
20-13 |
0.0
W
|
40/22 |
210/104 |
5.3/4.7 |
0/0 |
18/16 |
34/32 |
187/126 |
1/3 |
1/6 |
5.3/3.3 |
397/230 |
5.3/3.8 |
| 09/07/19 @ Mississippi |
17-31 |
+6.5
L
|
23/49 |
84/256 |
3.7/5.2 |
1/2 |
25/16 |
41/24 |
279/232 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
6.3/8.9 |
363/488 |
5.4/6.5 |
| 09/14/19 Colorado St. |
55-34 |
-9.5
W
|
32/35 |
222/245 |
6.9/7.0 |
1/2 |
20/20 |
35/33 |
301/180 |
0/0 |
1/3 |
8.4/5.0 |
523/425 |
7.7/6.0 |
| 09/21/19 San Jose St. |
24-31 |
-20.5
L
|
32/20 |
131/115 |
4.1/5.8 |
0/0 |
28/32 |
50/49 |
356/393 |
5/1 |
0/1 |
7.1/7.9 |
487/508 |
5.9/7.3 |
| 09/28/19 Texas A&M |
27-31 |
+23.0
W
|
23/28 |
116/126 |
5.0/4.5 |
0/1 |
27/23 |
44/35 |
280/225 |
1/1 |
2/4 |
6.1/5.8 |
396/351 |
5.7/5.2 |
| 10/12/19 @ Kentucky |
20-24 |
+7.0
W
|
27/51 |
202/339 |
7.5/6.6 |
0/1 |
12/8 |
27/12 |
104/81 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
3.5/6.2 |
306/420 |
5.4/6.6 |
Arkansas