Army vs

Notre Dame

at Bronx NY
Sat, Nov 23
NBC
4:00 PM Pacific
Peacock
Rotation: 181
Odds: Notre Dame -16, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Note: I released Army on Monday morning when the line was +16.5. The line has since gone down but Army is still a 1-Star Best Bet at +14.

2-Star Best Bet – **Army (+16.5 -115)  18   NOTRE DAME  26

I think the perception is that Notre Dame is going to destroy unbeaten Army just like they destroyed unbeaten Navy 4 weeks ago. However, Navy moved the ball in that game quite well (5.8 yppl) but fumbled the ball away an uncharacteristic 5 times (Navy has lost just 2 fumbles in their other 9 games) and Army’s defense (0.4 yards per play better than average) is significantly better than Navy’s defense (0.5 yppl worse than average).

Army’s option attack is also better than Navy’s option, as the Black Knights have averaged 7.2 yppl in the 8 games with quarterback Bryson Daily at the helm (he missed the Air Force game) while rating at 0.9 yppl better than average after compensating for defenses faced (Navy’s offense is +0.4 yppl). A run-heavy option offense (87% run plays) makes Notre Dame’s defense relatively less good, as the Irish have been 0.6 yards per rushing play better than average while being an elite level 2.3 yards per pass play better than average. The strength of Notre Dame’s defense is devalued when facing an option team, as a team that runs the ball 87% of the time makes the Irish defense just 0.7 yppl better than average rather than 1.3 yppl better than average. That difference equates to about 4 ½ points of pure line value just from the matchup, which was certainly not factored into the opening line.

Notre Dame’s offense has been 0.7 yppl better than average, which is not even as good as Army’s offense has been, and the Irish are projected to gain just 337 yards at 6.0 yppl in this game against an Army defense that has been 0.4 yppl better than average and just held the only better than average offense they’ve faced (North Texas) to 3 points and 283 total yards.

Notre Dame better hope that Army turns it over multiple times, as this should be a competitive game if Army plays at their usual level.

Army is a 2-Star Best Bet at +14.5 or more and 1-Star at +14.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Army
  • Notre Dame
ARM
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 52.7 23.1
  • Run Yards 338.0 97.8
  • YPRP 6.4 4.2




Pass





  • Pass Comp 4.4 20.7
  • Pass Att 7.3 32.7
  • Comp % 60.6% 63.3%
  • Pass Yards 85.0 180.2
  • Sacks 0.3 2.1
  • Sack Yards 2.2 12.0
  • Sack % 4.3% 6.1%
  • Pass Plays 7.7 34.8
  • Net Pass Yards 82.8 168.2
  • YPPP 10.8 4.8

Total

  • Total Plays 60.3 57.9
  • Total Yards 420.8 266.0
  • YPPL 7.0 4.6

TO


  • Int 0.1 1.6
  • Int % 1.5% 4.8%
  • Fumbles 0.2 0.0
  • Turnovers 0.3 1.6
 
  • Points 35.2 10.3
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