Arkansas @

LSU

Sat, Sep 23
ESPN
4:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 401
Odds: LSU -17.5, Total: 54.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Arkansas (+17.5)  20   LSU  33

Arkansas is coming off a 31-38 home loss to BYU but the Razorbacks outgained the Cougars by 138 total yards and the stats project a 12 points win. Arkansas certainly isn’t playing as well as expected so far this season, particularly on offense, but last week’s loss appears to have created some line value in favor of the Hogs.

Arkansas has been really disappointing offensively, as the rushing attack has been poor without last year’s leading rusher Raheim Sanders (1443 yards at 6.5 ypr in 2022), who was injured in week 1, and veteran QB KJ Jefferson has struggled throwing the ball without last year’s top two receivers. The Razorbacks have averaged only 5.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppl to an average team. LSU’s defense was very good last week but they also gave up 45 points on 7.7 ypl to FSU in their opener, so there are still some questions about how good the Tigers are defensively and the Arkansas offense should improve.

LSU’s offense has been great in every game, as they’ve averaged 7.2 yppl or more in all three contests thus far. Arkansas has been really good defensively, allowing just 262 yards per game at 4.4 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense), so they may be able to slow down the Tigers’ potent attack (I project 411 yards at 6.2 yppl for LSU).

This looks like a buy low situation with Arkansas and I’ll lean with the Hogs at +17 or more.

 

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Arkansas
  • LSU
ARK
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 37.3 28.0
  • Run Yards 173.3 87.0
  • YPRP 4.6 3.1




Pass





  • Pass Comp 19.0 16.7
  • Pass Att 26.3 27.7
  • Comp % 72.2% 60.2%
  • Pass Yards 219.0 201.7
  • Sacks 2.3 4.0
  • Sack Yards 16.3 26.3
  • Sack % 8.1% 12.6%
  • Pass Plays 28.7 31.7
  • Net Pass Yards 202.7 175.3
  • YPPP 7.1 5.5

Total

  • Total Plays 66.0 59.7
  • Total Yards 376.0 262.3
  • YPPL 5.7 4.4

TO


  • Int 0.3 1.7
  • Int % 1.3% 6.0%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.7
  • Turnovers 0.7 2.3
 
  • Points 38.3 19.0
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