Game Analysis

Note: I released this play early in the week as soon as word that ASU’s QB would be back in the lineup after missing last week. The line has gone up and moved out of Best Bet range.

2-Star Best Bet – **Arizona State (-2)  33   OKLAHOMA STATE   22

Oklahoma State is a miserable defensive team that blows assignments and consistently misses tackles. The Cowboys have allowed 500 yards of offense per game at 7.0 yards per play (to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense). Arizona State is not a great offensive team but the Sun Devils have averaged 6.1 yppl this season and rate at 0.1 yppl better than average with Sam Leavitt at quarterback (he’s due back this week). They’d be a bit worse if #4 receiver Xaiver Guillory misses a second straight game (he’s questionable), but the Sun Devils’ run-oriented offense matches up well against an Oklahoma State defense that’s allowed 267 rush yards per game at 6.8 yards per rushing play.

Oklahoma State’s offense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average with Alan Bowman at quarterback. The Cowboys run 40 pass plays per game but Bowman should be kept in check by a good Arizona State pass defense that has been 1.1 yards per pass play better than average. The nasty weather expected (10 mph winds and rain throughout the game) should also slow down the Cowboys’ aerial attack and running more is not likely to be a good option for an offense whose top running back Ollie Gordon (an All-American last season) is averaging just 4.2 ypr. ASU has been 0.7 yards per rushing play better than average this season and Gordon is banged up and may not play (the backups have averaged only 3.3 ypr on 65 runs).

Arizona State has been the far superior team, and they may get an assist from the bad weather, which would hurt Oklahoma State’s pass-heavy offense more than it would hurt the Sun Devils’ run-oriented attack.

Arizona State is a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and 1-Star up to -4.