Game Analysis

Lean – Under (49.5) – IOWA STATE (-7.5)  25   Arizona State  17

Arizona State was only 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively this season with QB Sam Leavitt in the game. Leavitt is out, as is star WR Jordyn Tyson, and backup Jeff Sims has averaged just 2.6 yards on 55 pass play this season. Sims got one start last season and his compensated yards per pass play rating was 2.7 yppp worse than Leavitt and this season Sims’ compensated yppp rating has been 2.5 yppp lower. That equates to about 8 points.

I rate ASU’s offense at 1.1 yards per play worse than average without Leavitt and Tyson (57 catches for 628 yards) so Iowa State’s mediocre defense should be able to handle the Sun Devils’ attack.

Iowa State has been 0.7 yppl better than average offensively this season but ASU has a very good defense that’s yielded just 5.3 yards per play to a schedule of FBS opponents that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing Texas Tech’s backup QB).

I don’t expect either team to move the ball well and wind and rain is expected in Ames on Saturday afternoon. This should be a low scoring game.