Arizona @

Colorado

Sat, Oct 16
Pac-12 Network
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 157
Odds: Colorado -7, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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Note: Arizona has moved out of Best Bet range, but they are a Strong Opinion at +6 or +6.5.

1-Star Best Bet – *Arizona (+7)  23   COLORADO  22

I would have made Arizona a 2-Star Best Bet if starting quarterback Jordan McCloud had not been ruled out for the rest of the season, but Gunner Cruz was the opening game starter and has completed 67.6% of his 71 passes this season. Cruz tends to settle for short passes and is well below average in compensated yards per pass play (4.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he should perform well enough against Colorado’s bad pass defense (7.0 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense) to move the chains at a reasonable rate. I project just 5.4 yard per play for Arizona’s offense in this game but that’s more than enough to compete with Colorado’s sad offense.

The Buffaloes have managed just 4.2 yppl and 13.8 points per game this season (just 8.5 ppg vs FBS teams) despite facing a collection of defenses that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average FBS attack. Arizona’s defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl) but they’re good enough to hold the Buffs’ offense to below average numbers (I project just 5.0 yppl for CU).

These are the two worst teams in the Pac 12 and I don’t see enough difference in them to make Colorado a touchdown favorite. In fact, the Wildcats have been the better team so far this season. I’ll take Arizona as a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 at -115 odds or better and as a Strong Opinion down to +6.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Arizona
  • Colorado
ARI
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 32.2 39.2
  • Run Yards 137.0 235.0
  • YPRP 4.3 6.0




Pass





  • Pass Comp 25.2 12.0
  • Pass Att 39.6 21.4
  • Comp % 63.6% 56.1%
  • Pass Yards 249.8 157.4
  • Sacks 2.8 1.4
  • Sack Yards 22.0 8.0
  • Sack % 6.6% 6.1%
  • Pass Plays 42.4 22.8
  • Net Pass Yards 227.8 149.4
  • YPPP 5.4 6.6

Total

  • Total Plays 74.6 62.0
  • Total Yards 364.8 384.4
  • YPPL 4.9 6.2

TO


  • Int 1.8 0.6
  • Int % 4.5% 2.8%
  • Fumbles 0.6 0.4
  • Turnovers 2.4 1.0
 
  • Points 16.8 31.6
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