Appalachian State @

UL Lafayette

Tue, Oct 12
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 107
Odds: UL Lafayette +4, Total: 57

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – Appalachian State (-4 -115)  35   LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE  24

Louisiana Lafayette was 21-4 the previous two seasons and returned 20 of 22 starters to last season’s 10-1 team. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 4-1 this season with their only loss being to a good Texas team by 20 points. Things may seem like business as usual given the single blemish, but Louisiana isn’t as good as they’ve been. The ULL defense allowed just 51.9% completions last season but that same defense has given up 61.5% completions and 6.6 yards per pass play in 5 games against quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.6 yppp against an average defensive team. The pass defense has been worse than average in all 5 games and former top recruit QB Chase Brice (was #2 QB at Clemson two years ago) has played well in Appalachian State’s offensive scheme (8.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB) and should carry the Mountaineers attack that figures to have their mediocre rush attack slowed by a better than average ULL run defense.

The biggest difference in Louisiana Lafayette’s offense is the absence of two NFL caliber running backs (Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas) that combined for 1636 rushing yards at 6.0 ypr last season. The top 2 backs this season have combined for 6.1 ypr but they’ve faced some bad run defenses and overall the Ragin’ Cajuns have averaged 5.5 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.8 yprp to an average team, and have averaged 4.2 yprp or worse in 3 of their 5 games. Veteran quarterback Levi Lewis is also struggling and has averaged only 6.6 yppp against teams that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average quarterback.

Appalachian’s defense is just average (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) but that’s 0.9 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the teams that Louisiana Lafayette has faced this season and averaged just 28 points against.

Louisiana has played just one good game all season (a 49-14 win over a horrible Ohio team), as they lost to Texas by 20 points before the Longhorns switched to Thompson at quarterback, were outplayed by 123 total yards in a 3-point win over FCS team Nicholls State and were outplayed from the line of scrimmage in close wins the last two weeks over bad teams Georgia Southern and South Alabama.

The Mountaineers are a much better team and should handle their business on the road tonight. Appalachian State is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4.5 or less and a Strong Opinion at -5.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Appalachian State
  • UL Lafayette
APP
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 39.4 28.8
  • Run Yards 215.0 136.6
  • YPRP 5.5 4.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 21.8 20.2
  • Pass Att 32.2 35.8
  • Comp % 67.7% 56.4%
  • Pass Yards 284.0 231.0
  • Sacks 1.2 3.0
  • Sack Yards 6.8 14.8
  • Sack % 3.6% 7.7%
  • Pass Plays 33.4 38.8
  • Net Pass Yards 277.2 216.2
  • YPPP 8.3 5.6

Total

  • Total Plays 72.8 67.6
  • Total Yards 492.2 352.8
  • YPPL 6.8 5.2

TO


  • Int 0.6 1.0
  • Int % 1.9% 2.8%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.4
  • Turnovers 1.4 1.4
 
  • Points 35.2 20.0
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