Appalachian State vs

Toledo

at Montgomery AL
Sat, Dec 17
2:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 209
Odds: Toledo -1, Total: 60

Game Analysis

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Camellia Bowl

Saturday, December 17 – 2:30 pm Pacific

Appalachian State (+1)  31   Toledo  30

My math model picks this game 30.3 to 30.1, so there really isn’t any value on either side or the total in this game, and I don’t have any bowl angles that apply to this game. While this isn’t a game worth betting, it should be a game worth watching, as Toledo quarterback Logan Woodside is one of the best quarterbacks that nobody has heard of. Woodside completed 69% of his passes and leads the nation with 43 touchdown passes, against just 9 interceptions, while averaging 9.2 yards per pass play. Woodside faced a collection of mediocre to bad defensive teams this season that would combine to allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback and this game will be the first time all season that he’s faced a good pass defense.

Appalachian State has yielded just 5.0 yards per pass play this season to quarterbacks that would average 5.8 yppp against an average defense and the Mountaineers secondary will challenge Toledo’s receivers. Appalachian did allow Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya to average 13.0 yards per pass play against them in week 3, but they also held Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs to just 5.6 yppp in an overtime loss at Tennessee and it’s likely that performance against Miami was an aberration – although we’ll find out today. The math projects 7.1 yards per pass play and 443 yards at 6.2 yards per play for Toledo in this game, which should net them around 30 points.

Appalachian State runs an option offense out of the pistol formation and throws the ball much more often than a typical option attack. Quarterback Taylor Lamb is in his 3rd season as the starter and does a good job of running the attack. Lamb is a mediocre passer (6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB) but he makes good decisions and the Mountaineers ground attack averaged 260 yards at 6.2 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp). Toledo is bad defending both the run and the pass and overall the Rockets allowed 6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Appalachian should run their offense will in both facets and the Mounties are projected to average 6.7 yards per play and to rack up 409 total yards.

Overall, the math picks this game even and I see both offenses having success. I can’t predict a tie so I’ll pick the better defensive team to win by a point and hope that Appalachian is not disappointed to be coming to Mobile, Alabama for a second straight year. If I were a player I’d be a bit disappointed if I found out that my bowl destination was the same as the previous year, especially when it’s one of the less exciting cities to host a bowl game (no offense Mobile. I’m sure it’s lovely there but kids don’t dream about a trip to Mobile, Alabama – twice). I have no opinion on the side or the total.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Appalachian State
  • Toledo
APP
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 42.0 29.6
  • Run Yards 252.7 128.7
  • YPRP 6.2 4.9




Pass





  • Pass Comp 15.8 19.8
  • Pass Att 24.9 34.8
  • Comp % 63.2% 56.9%
  • Pass Yards 184.0 200.7
  • Sacks 1.3 2.3
  • Sack Yards 6.9 15.9
  • Sack % 4.8% 6.3%
  • Pass Plays 26.2 37.2
  • Net Pass Yards 177.1 184.8
  • YPPP 6.8 5.0

Total

  • Total Plays 68.2 66.8
  • Total Yards 436.7 329.3
  • YPPL 6.4 4.9

TO


  • Int 0.7 1.6
  • Int % 2.7% 4.5%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.2
  • Turnovers 1.1 1.8
 
  • Points 29.1 17.0
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