Appalachian State vs

North Texas

at Mrytle Beach
Mon, Dec 21
11:30 AM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: North Texas +21, Total: 67.5

Game Analysis

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Appalachian State (-21/-21.5)  43   North Texas  20

Lean – Under (67.5)

Rotation #267 – Monday 11:30 am Pacific

The total on this game has gone up from an opening number of 65.5 points despite some factors that will likely lead to lower scoring. The most significant factor is the absence of future NFL receiver Jaelon Darden, who has opted out of playing for North Texas in this game to focus on preparing for the NFL combine. Darden was targeted 112 times and averaged 10.6 yards per target despite being the victim of frequent double-teaming. The rest of the Eagles’ wide receivers averaged a combined 8.7 despite infrequent double-teams so Darden’s impact should certainly be felt.

The other factor pointing towards a lower scoring game than expected is the absence of quarterback Austin Aune, who split time with Jason Bean. Bean is not really a downgrade on a yards per play basis, as his worse passing numbers (0.4 yards per pass play worse than the team’s overall rating) are made up for by his ability to run the ball (398 yards on 35 runs). I don’t expect 11.4 yards per run for Bean, as that average was skewed by his 180 yards on 9 runs against Middle Tennessee State, but I do expect the Mean Green to run the ball more than usual with Bean getting all the snaps and without Darden to throw too. North Texas runs their offense at one of the fastest paces in the nation but their pace is slower when Bean is in the game (about 3.5 total plays per game slower), which accounts for about -2 points towards the predicted total.

North Texas will also be running the ball more because Appalachian State doesn’t defend the run well (5.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp against an average defense) while the Mountaineers are exceptionally good defending the pass (only 46.7% completions and 5.0 yards per pass play allowed with 14 interceptions). As long as North Texas is within a couple of touchdowns they should be running the ball a lot, which will slow down the pace of play even more.

Appalachian State has a run-oriented offense and the Mountaineers will be running the ball more than usual because North Texas is notoriously bad defending the run. The Mean Green have surrendered an average of 263 ground yards per game at 6.3 yards per rushing play – to mostly bad running teams that would combine to average only 4.2 yprp against an average defense. Appalachian State is happy to run the ball all afternoon, which should also slow the pace of play.

Overall, the math favors Appalachian State by 23.5 points with a total of 63.1 points even with a boost for the good weather. Huge dogs can sometimes letdown in minor bowl games so I’m not eager to play the side here. But, I will lean with the under.

Note: This will be the only bowl game that I’ll post on the Free Analysis pages. If you want bowl analysis on each game you can subscribe to the College Season package for $125.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Appalachian State
  • North Texas


  • Run Plays 42.0 32.4
  • Run Yards 227.6 159.7
  • YPRP 5.7 5.3


  • Pass Comp 16.9 13.9
  • Pass Att 26.3 29.2
  • Comp % 64.3% 47.6%
  • Pass Yards 197.2 168.8
  • Sacks 2.0 2.0
  • Sack Yards 12.2 12.8
  • Sack % 7.1% 6.4%
  • Pass Plays 28.3 31.2
  • Net Pass Yards 185.0 156.0
  • YPPP 6.5 5.0


  • Total Plays 70.3 63.6
  • Total Yards 424.8 328.5
  • YPPL 6.0 5.2


  • Int 1.1 1.4
  • Int % 4.2% 4.8%
  • Fumbles 0.6 0.3
  • Turnovers 1.7 1.7
  • Points 31.8 19.3
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